2024-04-10 18:33:15
About 4 years ahead of previous forecast
Tesla CEO Elon Musk (pictured) predicted that if sufficient artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors and power supply are supported, ‘Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)’ that surpasses human intelligence could emerge next year. . This forecast is about 4 years ahead of the previous forecast.
In an interview with Norwegian Pension Fund CEO Nikolai Tangen on the 8th (local time) on social media “It will be possible within the next few days,” he said.
Last year, Musk predicted that AGI would be achieved by 2029, and he believed that AI with intelligence surpassing humans would appear sooner than this. Musk said the reason was, “Of all the technologies I’ve seen, I have never seen one that develops as quickly as AI,” and “there are new AI announcements every week.”
He also pointed out that three restrictions surrounding AI development are being eased. Musk said, “Until now, the lack of talent, AI chips, and power supply has slowed down the pace of AI development. Top talent in the physics field are moving to the AI field in large numbers, and the shortage of NVIDIA chips, which became a problem last year, will soon be alleviated.” It appears that “Now all that remains is the power supply problem,” he said.
However, he pointed out that the current Nvidia chip problem is still limiting AI development. He said, “To train the ‘Grock 2’ model (an AI chatbot introduced by his AI startup xAI), about 20,000 NVIDIA H100 graphics processing units (GPUs) are needed, and for the even better ‘Grock 3’, about 100,000. “It will be necessary,” he said.
Because of the vague definition of AGI as ‘surpassing humans,’ there are large differences in the timing of predictions among AI experts. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said at a recent press conference, “If we define AGI as being superior to humans in special areas such as the bar exam, it can be done within five years.” On the other hand, DeepMind founder Demis Hassabis believes it will not be possible until 2030.
New York = Correspondent Kim Hyun-soo [email protected]
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2024-04-10 18:33:15