2024-04-12 23:57:45
Author: Tahmez Asadov
Source: Trend
It is not necessary to have additional knowledge and to be foresight to see those who want to create geopolitical turmoil in the South Caucasus. The US-EU-Armenia meeting (US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan) held in the political capital of Europe – Brussels – showed once again that the West is cautious about the promises regarding the security of Yerevan. The general content of the statements made during this meeting, where the military aspects and armament line for the future trajectory of Armenia were put on the discussion table, is already known to everyone.
The most culminating point of the events was the disclosure of the loan amount allocated to Armenia by these forces with a 4-year loan. It turned out that it was decided to allocate a support package of 330 million euros from the European Union and 65 million dollars from the United States to Armenia. In fact, we wouldn’t be wrong if we say that these figures were one of the steps taken to hide the essence of the meeting. The million-dollar aid was one of the deliberate steps to cover the true nature of the US-EU-Armenia meeting with economic curtains.
It is clear as day that the geopolitical reality in the South Caucasus and the legal point of view of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity became the subject of discussion in the Brussels negotiations. Before this meeting, the calls from the West to Baku actually had the effect of a pillow under the head. Because the West’s ideas to protect the security of its investment in Armenia were nothing more than an announcement of attempts to strengthen it militarily in the region. The West launched a plan to open a front against the Kremlin in the region by openly sacrificing Armenia in order to dismay Russia.
The reality remains the same: All this is happening against the background of the absence of geopolitical changes (a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Armenia-Turkey normalization, opening of regional communications) that should take place after the 44-day war. Since the end of 2020, the situation in the world, especially in neighboring regions, has gradually changed. The war in Ukraine, the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East and other difficulties in transport logistics have led to a significant increase in the attention of world actors to the South Caucasus. It is very clear that new players have started paying attention to the region and trying to intervene.
All these processes are carried out against the background of the processes in which promises were made that Armenia will be supported in the social and economic spheres at the US-European Union-Armenia conference held in Brussels. The West is not going to hide the fact that the main goal is to reduce Armenia’s dependence on Russia and strengthen its economic stability in this direction.
The progress suggests that everything starts anew. The effects of Armenia’s Western adventure on us and the region will be felt more clearly in the next stages.
Although the calls of Blinken and von der Leyen to Baku before the meeting on April 5 show that they follow the “policy of balance”, it can be interpreted as a step taken to send the message to Azerbaijan that “our game is at the head of Russia”. But the official in Baku knows very well that if one of the goals of Western support to Armenia is to weaken Russia’s influence on Armenia, the question of strengthening Armenia’s position in negotiations with Azerbaijan cannot be ruled out.
Pashinyan has made maximum use of the West’s support for Armenia and is trying to replace Russia with the West in the role it has played for 30 years. This is actually not new at all. Official Iravan is now similar to “a woman who leaves him to marry another man she likes.” In fact, there is no serious process that changes for Armenia. Because Armenia chooses the role of an outpost again, and this is Pashinyan’s conscious choice.
The game of a thousand bears is in the head of a pear! But this time, it seems that all the games were thrown to get rid of a “bear” in ambush. However, the fact that Russia, which did not react practically to this great betrayal, as well as Iran, which often talks about its “red line” in the South Caucasus, for some reason silently follows Yerevan’s conflict, raises many questions.
It seems that, unlike Iran, official Moscow, which makes regular statements against Armenia’s actions, has imitated a public confrontation with Yerevan with mutual accusations, but in reality it cannot observe from the outside that the atmosphere of tactics planned to ensure mutual interests is created.
Russia should understand that any step taken by Armenia today to destabilize the situation in the region will be felt more in the Kremlin. Because official Baku has created such a geopolitical reality in the last 4 years that Europe is aware of how high its need for Azerbaijan is.
This need of the EU is related to the realization of the Middle Corridor and the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor (TCCI), along with the transportation of oil, gas, and alternative energy. The West understands very well that spoiling relations with Azerbaijan, where so many opportunities are concentrated, at such a time, cutting off ties is “squeezing” at its own feet. For this reason, it is expected that the European Union will choose the way to expand the dialogue with official Baku, taking into account the importance of the implementation of the Middle Corridor and the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor of Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan, on the other hand, is thinking about the effective use of the new geopolitical realities it has formed in order to complete some issues. Undoubtedly, one of them is to resolve the issue of the final peace agreement with Armenia. Determining the borders is a long process, negotiations will continue even after the signing of the “peace treaty”. Despite this, official Yerevan intends to resist. Although Iravan promised, for some reason he is delaying the return of 4 villages. This increases the tension in the region.
Armenia’s words and deeds contradict each other again. If Nikol Pashinyan thinks that by such provocations, by firing at an Azerbaijani soldier on the conventional border, he will be able to avoid the return of the promised villages, as well as to attack the final peace, he is mistaken. Because Azerbaijan has already shown several times in the past 4 years that it is capable of solving any territorial problem by itself, and if it decides to take any steps for this, no one will be able to stop it.