The total basic basket (CBT) and the basic food basket (CBA), which are used to set the income needed to avoid falling into poverty or indigence, respectively, slowed down their rate of increase again in March, but in The year-on-year measurement remains well above inflation. So, A typical family needs $773,385 in the third month of the year to not be poor and $358,049 to not be destitute.
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec), The CBT had a variation of 11.9% and the CBA was 10.9%, against 15.8% and 13.1% in February, respectively. This is the third consecutive drop in the rate of increase, after the peak that occurred at the end of last year, when it went from 15.2% in November to 30.1% in December.
But the most worrying thing about the figures that both baskets showed is that in the year-on-year measurement both had increases well above inflation in the same period. So, While inflation rose 287.9% in the last twelve months, the increase in the CBT in that period was 304.4% and that of the CBA, 308.2%.
These figures will have their correlation in an increase in poverty and destitution, especially taking into account that salaries grow at a slower rate, not only due to inflation, but also due to these baskets.
In this sense, Virginia Giordano, economist at the Argentine Institute for Social Development (Idesa), commented that salaries in 2023 lagged far behind compared to the value of the baskets. “There was a 22% loss of purchasing power. And so far this year (adding January, February and March) very few sectors have reached the 49 points that the food basket rose and the 56 of the total. Even less are the informal ones, retirees or recipients of social plans,” he explained.
Giordano expanded his analysis and highlighted that, With price adjustments that have not yet fully impacted the CPI (such as gas and electricity rates) and imagining a scenario with a stable dollar, there are still several months with high inflation. “If wages do not recover or even adjust in an equivalent manner, it is very likely that poverty figures will continue to increase. Likewise, if social containment strategies are not improved,” the economist concluded.
As published THE NATION two weeks ago, In the second half of last year, poverty was 41.7%, while indigence reached 11.9%, showing a sharp jump, according to Indec data.. According to that organization, throughout the country, the number of poor people reached 19.5 million, while the homeless rose to 5.4 million. In the fourth quarter, according to private estimates, poverty could have reached almost 45%.
Economist Guadalupe Biron, from the consulting firm Empiria, commented that the data improves at the margin, but they are still very worrying numbers. “The figure of $773,000 for a family of four to avoid falling into poverty is very high. In historical line, with 2.7 minimum wages this basket was covered [básica total], today that number is 3.8. It fell compared to the previous month, when 4.4 minimum wages were needed, but it is still very high″, he remarked.
Meanwhile, economist Eugenio Marí, from the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, highlighted that The basic baskets were on the verge of recording single-digit monthly variations and he believed that this is a relatively positive scenario, because it shows that inflation continues to fall.. “That this decline deepens is essential to begin to recover the purchasing power of salaries and pensions immediately,” he added.
However, Marí pointed out that The global panorama must not be lost sight of. In this sense, he said that Argentina continues to be an economy that is turning 13 years old with the GDP moving cyclically around a stagnant trend.. “This is what has caused almost 45% of people to not reach the poverty line. A line that for an equivalent adult was around US$250 in March of this year,” the economist analyzed.