2024-04-12 21:17:00
During a US Congressional hearing on the stalled military aid bill for Ukraine, General Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, urged American lawmakers: “The gravity of this moment cannot be underestimated. Without further support from the United States, Ukraine will run out of artillery, shells and air defense ammunition. The side that cannot return fire loses.”
The General then clarified the need for further funding: “Since the conflict began in February 2022, the US has provided more than $113 billion in aid to Ukraine, including $62 billion in military assistance through the Pentagon. Further financing is urgently needed to safeguard this investment. The immediate need is to approve the budget supplement to avoid a Russian victory and a Ukrainian defeat. Without this, our two-year commitment will not bear fruit in the coming months.”
Leaving aside the fact that the general called the death of hundreds of thousands of men an ‘investment’, it should however be noted than during an event at Georgetown University marking NATO’s 75th anniversary, Damn he at least had the clarity to underline the importance of restoring the lines of communication that during the Cold War had helped avoid nuclear conflicts. This is a type of rationality that the military often demonstrates that it has, while our top politicians in Europe have so far not demonstrated that they have.
The general stated: “USA AND RUSSIA MUST DUST DUST THE COLD WAR MANUAL TO AVOID NUCLEAR ESCALATION.” And he added: “We could read each other’s signals. We knew how to send signals to each other… almost all of that is gone now.”
The number of NATO troops available to Cavoli in case of crisis has increased by around 700% in the last year. However, he noted that the transformation in combat readiness does not appear to have been accompanied at the strategic level when it comes to ensuring that nuclear powers do not misunderstand each other’s intentions. He recognized the complications introduced by the increased influence of China, a significant new player in global dynamics.
In his speech, Cavoli recalled how, during the Cold War, there existed a “very fine and mutually understood vocabulary” between the West and the Soviet Union, which allowed intentions to be communicated clearly and predictably, reducing the risk of escalation. He concluded by highlighting that many of the agreements and treaties that once facilitated this type of communication have been abandoned, calling for a reconsideration of these mechanisms to ensure effective management of current tensions.
General Cavoli is echoed by the Finnish Prime Minister who invited NATO to become “more Finnish” and eliminate bellicose rhetoric towards the Russian Federation
Il Financial Times reports that Finnish President Alexander Stubb has called on other NATO members to refrain from belligerent statements against Russia and to focus on preparing their armies for a potential conflict. According to him, European countries must become “more Finnish”. Finland joined NATO in 2023.
“I’m a little concerned by these rather belligerent conversations that Moscow will test Article 5 and that Europe will be next in line. I think we should prepare for that, but I think it’s extremely unlikely. <…> I call on all European countries to become more Finnish. In other words, better prepared. We must prepare for the worst to avoid it.”
The President of Finland believes that Kiev’s support is of paramount importance. In his opinion, NATO and the EU must prepare for a possible conflict not only with the countries bordering the Russian Federation, but also with all other countries. Stubb said his appeal to other NATO members was “a bit un-Finnish,” as the country is known for its moderation and soft approach. But he noted that Finland had fought more than 30 wars and skirmishes with Russia since 1300. The Finnish president also commented on the buildup of Russian forces on the border after the country joined NATO: “We’re not worried about it, but we’re ready.”
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