From Lima
taking advantage of the errors, weaknesses and contradictions of a government that does not find its way, the right accelerates its plans to overthrow President Pedro Castillo, who has distanced himself from his electoral bases and lost support from a good part of the left. This Friday, the Commission of Constitution of the Congress approved putting up for debate a request to open the president a political trial for treason for having declared in an interview about the possibility of granting Bolivia an outlet to the sea. The Executive quickly clarified that this proposal, which has remained in a journalistic statement, did not imply any transfer of territorial sovereignty, but rather resume and strengthen existing agreements with that country to facilitate an outlet to the sea, but the right has still given it the green light. to the first step in processing this crazy accusation of treason. It is one of their options to overthrow the government.
On the table of the opposition’s maneuvers to remove Castillo from the presidency is also re-propose an express dismissal, without impeachment, alleging “moral incapacity” of the president, what they already tried unsuccessfully last December by falling far short of the necessary 87 votes out of 130. Now they have added more votes, but not enough, so voices are heard that speak of seeing how to lower the votes required to apply “moral incapacity”. Another option handled by the right is to change the Constitution in Congress to broaden the grounds for impeachment and removal of the head of state, now limited to treason, preventing elections or illegally closing Congress, to include corruption charges -there are complaints against Castillo for meetings with State suppliers who later won tenders-, and thus lower the barrier of votes, since 66 votes are needed for an impeachment in this way.
unforced errors
In recent days, Castillo’s situation has been seriously complicated by his own decisions. He changed his ministerial cabinet and put as head of his team of ministers a legislator, Hector Valer, who comes from the extreme right and has complaints of violence against his wife and daughter. It lasted just three days. With the new cabinet that he had to name, the fourth in less than seven months, Castillo did not solve the crisis. There are ministers who are highly questioned -there are more than one accused of family violence, one investigated for drug trafficking in the Interior, a former judge who freed drug cops in Justica, a defender of the informal public transport mafias in Transportes, a doctor highly questioned by his own colleagues in Salud- and they have come out top performing ministers. At the Ministry of Health, Castillo took out the doctor Hernando Cevallosa former legislator from the left outside the official Peru Libre (PL) party, who had been conducting a successful vaccination against covid 19 and was the best valued in the cabinet, to be replaced by a militant PL doctor, Hernan Condori, denounced for corruption, for promoting without scientific basis the curative use of an unapproved product and for practicing as an obstetrician without having that specialty. The entrance in Economics of a neoliberal technocrat, Oscar Graham, replacing the leftist economist Pedro Franckewhich exhibited successes in economic recovery, marks a turn back towards neoliberal policies, which is a nod to businessmen and distances Castillo from his electoral bases and his progressive allies.
Castillo has recomposed his alliance with Vladimir Cerron, general secretary of PL, giving him space in the new cabinet, which assures him the votes of the pro-government caucus that Cerrón controls against a possible impeachment request, votes that Cerrón had threatened to take away from the president if his party was excluded from the cabinet. From the beginning of the government, Cerrón, who defines himself as a Marxist-Leninist, made the other sectors of the left that supported Castillo his main enemy, and now celebrates the distancing of the head of state from his progressive allies, while at the same time living with neoliberalism in the cabinet.
neoliberal minister
“After the ministerial changes, Castillo’s situation is much more complicated and unstable. That Castillo has put a neoliberal as economy minister is not enough for the right, which wants total control of the government. The right as the first objective seeks to corner Castillo to make him fall, and if they cannot take him down they will seek to tame him to put them to the chief of the cabinet and the ministers and leave an adornment president and thus recover total control of the State”, he told Page 12 sociologist and political analyst Alberto Adrianzen.
“Castillo -indicates Adrianzén- has not known how to face the right-wing offensive, he has not had a strategy. He should have formed a leftist front, politicized the conflict in terms of a confrontation between left and right, used the street as an element of pressure. But he hasn’t done any of that. The idea of the transformation that this government entailed has already been lost, it is a mediocre government, aimless, incoherent, that does not have a strategic direction, its great objective is not to change the country, but to survive as best it can. That a sector of the left has withdrawn support puts Castillo on the verge of being unsustainable”.
In dialogue with this newspaper, the political scientist and professor at the Catholic University of Peru, Eduardo Dargentdefined the government as “weak, which is trying to rearrange itself by renouncing the most programmatic changes of the left in the economy, it is not a progressive government like other Latin American lefts, but it is a government of social and moral conservatism that does not mind linking up with the conservative right, with which they shake hands. With the new cabinet, Castillo entrenches himself seeking in Congress the necessary votes to avoid his dismissal by rebuilding its alliance with PL and making other concessions, but it renounces the possibility of being a government with majority support and remains very vulnerable in the face of a corruption crisis or a social protest”.
Disapproval
Castillo, with his indecisions and bad decisions, plays in favor of his opponents who want to cut off his head. His government is sinking into a succession of errors, incomprehensible appointments, lack of direction and distancing from his proposals for change that raised the hopes of the popular sectors. In this scenario, not only the right is talking about Castillo’s departure, now voices are being heard from progressive sectors that question the continuity of his government and debate his possible resignation. But if Castillo, with his errors, plays in favor of his enemies, they, with his disrepute and notorious authoritarian attitudes, do so in favor of the president. According to a latest poll, Castillo has a level of disapproval that has risen to 61 percent, but rejection of Congress rises to 77 percent.
Adrianzén and Dargent agree that it is unfeasible due to citizen rejection that Castillo’s departure would be generated and a call only for presidential elections, leaving the current Congress, as the right wing intends.
“If Castillo is removed, or resigns, and Vice President Dina Boluarte also leaves, which is difficult to sustain, and instead of general elections only presidential elections are called, then there will be a violent citizen reaction against Congress,” warns Adrianzén. The feeling that everyone is leaving is growing.