2024-04-22 21:24:34
However, according to political scientists, candidates running a sluggish election campaign are taking a big risk – even the predictable and poll-predicted election result can be turned upside down if voters do not come to the polls.
Antrame plane
The presidential election marathon has reached the finish line. Although few call it an election, more call it a re-election. Gathering all the candidates for the debate is becoming a mission impossible. The Seimas, which started the spring session, did not perform miracles. The defense tax is suspended, the country is plagued by the scandal of intermediate inspections, I.Šimonytė is already without a third minister.
Lithuania is forced to choose: money or migrants, and from the first of May, compatriots will be able to register at the commandant’s offices and thus show their love for the homeland. The political scientists Lauras Bielinis and Vytautas Dumbliauskas, who debated on the “Žinių radio” show, discussed what kind of political atmosphere prevails in the middle of spring.
Vytautas Didios University (VDU) professor L. Bielinis admits that capricious political lovers would really like more dynamics, passions, conflicts, and a clear expression of positions in the elections, but these elections lack all of that.
“Actually, that boredom is our reaction to the fact that basically everything is solved. Everything is more or less clear – it is not yet clear whether G. Nausėda will win in the first or second round. And in fact, it is clear who will win, that’s why the elections seem “tired”, L. Bielinis assessed during the show.
However, the political scientist reminded of the constitutional structure of the state – the position of the president is in the background compared to the Seimas, so the intrigue will be really visible during the Seimas elections.
“The big battle will be for the Seimas, and here we will see the real elections.” And the presidential election is a test of strength, the performance of leaders – of all leaders. Even those who collect one or half a percent in the ratings today, they still want to show themselves as possible, potential leaders”, emphasized L. Bielinis.
Solving other tasks?
For his part, V. Dumbliauskas, a political scientist at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), noticed that in general, democracy is a form of passive audience management, when people, sitting on the couch in front of the TV, decide which of those who offer to be their representative, to vote for.
According to the political scientist, the intrigue in elections is when there is real competition between candidates – in contrast to this year’s presidential elections.
“Now G. Nausėda and his team understand very well that there is no competition at all. They calculated that it is enough for G. Nausėda to drive around small towns and municipal centers, and he does that successfully.
And everyone else understands that at the moment there is no competitor – G. Nausėda suits the majority of our voters, and that majority will obviously vote for him”, said V. Dumbliauskas during the program.
According to him, in five years, if there is no longer such a clear favorite, the presidential elections will look completely different.
“Now I would compare it to a sports competition – if in a sports competition one team is clearly stronger and it crushes the other team, then it is unlikely that we will buy tickets and go, because everything is still clear. No beauty, no tension. Both sports and politics attract competition with an unpredictable end,” he compared.
V. Dumbliauskas is convinced that the only candidate in the presidential elections who really participates with the intention of winning is G. Nausėda. All other candidates, according to the political scientist, solve other tasks.
“I.Šimonytė is the chairperson of the party, so she must participate – she is thinking about the Seimas elections. I. Vēgėlė is a candidate for major politics, maybe he will become a member of the Seimas – there are even rumors that he will lead the list of the Peasants’ Party. D. Žalimas, of course, is thinking about the European Parliament – for him, the presidential elections will be an advertising campaign. And everyone else solves more psychological problems”, he named.
Due to the lack of real competition, political scientists thought, the remaining candidates are not actively campaigning.
For example, Prime Minister I. Šimonytė said that she saw no need to travel around Lithuanian towns, because everyone already knows her positions on all issues – therefore, according to her, “some kind of messing around” with the voters will not change the situation in any way and more voters will not appear.
A surprise may await
L. Bielinis is convinced that passivity of candidates is a dangerous thing.
“The majority of society has already made up its mind, and everything is clear to them. But there is one nuance – if everything is clear in advance, it may happen that a lot of voters will not come to the ballot boxes. And if they don’t come to the polls, a surprise could happen.
The candidate who can lift up his voter and get him to come out and vote for him will win. Not the one that has the ratings now, but the one that will make you vote.
Therefore, the fact that I. Šimonytė does not travel around the regions means that she is not going to activate her constituents – either she does not want to or she did not have the powers, because she needs to perform other functions. This may come as a big surprise to her – she may be doing herself a disservice by not inviting her constituents to vote for her. That voter just won’t go because it’s already decided.
Therefore, driving, campaigning must be, although it is still clear. But still, when everything is clear, the voter may not come. He needs to be woken up”, emphasized L. Bielinis.
2024-04-22 21:24:34