Ostensibly we are on the brink of a war in Europe, one that could degenerate into a battle saturated with casualties and destruction. And this is something much bigger than Ukraine’s wish. This is a campaign on the question – will the world order designed after World War II, in which the integrity and security of sovereign states were guaranteed, continue to exist, or will it be violated?
US intelligence estimated over the weekend that Putin intends to carry out his plan to invade Ukraine, perhaps even over the next week. And this is not a small, defenseless space cell in a remote place on the globe. Here we are talking about the huge Russian army on the one hand, facing Ukraine – the largest country in Europe, with a potential combat force of one million troops, when at least according to one of the options outlined in the West in recent days, Putin will send his troops to fully occupy Ukraine including the capital Kiev.
War alert in Ukraine Despite the tensions, the United States has no clear indication of Putin’s intention to carry out the invasion plan in the coming days. Such an invasion does not serve Putin’s interests, who are likely to pay heavy prices for it. @MoavVardi #Saturday News pic.twitter.com/WTcPaf9UHV
– News here (@kann_news) February 12, 2022
If so, are we really treading the inevitable path to such a terrible event?
There is no point in trying to predict of course. But if one tries to map and analyze Putin’s interests, the answer is that such a comprehensive war and widespread invasion of Ukraine’s occupation does not serve Russia’s president at this stage.
You should go back a bit and try to see what the Russian president actually wants at the base of things. Ukraine is not the big story, it is the means on the way to achieving the great goal. The story is apparently Putin’s deepest and most authentic sense, that following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia was robbed of the status, power, and influence it had in the days of the Soviet Empire.
Many countries that were under the Russian umbrella have slipped out of it, and not just out, but into the arms of the West and NATO. That is, not only are countries like Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland no longer part of the Moscow-led bloc, NATO artillery aimed at the same Moscow.
Towards Invasion of Ukraine What does Putin want – and why now? @mayarachlin #Saturday News pic.twitter.com/yzUCqJGj4B
– News here (@kann_news) February 12, 2022
In Putin’s eyes, this is an injustice and a historic mishap that needs to be rectified, and he wants to be remembered in history as the one who restored Russia’s honor, and restored it to its greatness as an empire. NATO’s expansion into more and more countries around Russia is a bone in Putin’s throat, he seems determined to fight it, and Ukraine is already a real red line. These two.
That is, Putin has two levels of goals: the first and most concrete is to bring Ukraine back to being a protectorate of Russia, and not an ally of the United States and the West.
The second goal is to undermine the resilience of the NATO alliance, and especially to undermine the world order in which Russia has limited power and influence, in the face of American hegemony and the economic and military power of its United States allies, which sit on Russia’s borders.
So why not go to great lengths to bring Ukraine back into the arms of Mother Russia?
Because such a move would have dire consequences for Putin, and high prices he would have to pay, including a danger to the stability of his grip on power. First, the Ukrainian army may not be as strong as the Russian army, but the Ukrainians are not suckers. In front of about 100,000 Russian soldiers at the border who will go out to fight for foreign land, there are about a million Ukrainian soldiers and volunteers, for whom this is a war for survival over the house. Such a campaign will inevitably lead to many deaths on the Russian side as well, and today, when Russia’s economic situation is only deteriorating, this has considerable potential for harm to Putin.
In Russian thinking, and even more so in Putin’s thinking, the world is not run by just the two options commonly known in the West.
In addition, last week we witnessed an unprecedented event – former Russian military officials are publicly criticizing Putin’s intent to go to war in Ukraine. This is already no small crack in the public support that the President of Russia must obtain if he wants to invade. And of course, there is the price of the response of the West, which so far manages to produce a unified front against Russia. Biden repeated last night to Putin that an invasion would be met with a harsh and painful response for Russia. This time, the West intends to impose personal sanctions on members of the circle closest to Putin, who are likely to be severely harmed by such a move. And it’s not certain that Putin wants to and can afford it.
So is it really all talk and muscle demonstrations on the part of Russia, and in fact Putin is not going to do anything?
Not sure. Because the story here is not binary. It is not “either a war for all of Ukraine or harmony and complete normalization.” In Russian thinking, and even more so in Putin’s thinking, the world is not run by just the two options commonly known in the West.
In order to unite Ukraine’s alliance with the United States and the West, tanks and planes must not necessarily be sent to Kiev. One should mainly sow chaos, division and succeed in causing a permanent state of instability. One can, for example, act secretly to undermine political stability within Ukraine and lead to an uprising of pro-Russian forces, to the point where a pro-Russian leader seizes power.
Ghosts of war in Ukraine Another Day
At the same time, Putin can initiate an invasion of Ukraine, but on a very small scale. Say, a limited space cell occupancy within Ukraine. One that does not require air battles, armor and artillery for many weeks, but causes the crisis to be maintained in a way that does not give rest to the West, and in particular could lead to a split between the United States and its NATO allies.
Will all Western countries agree to pay the price involved in sanctions on Russia, when it comes to such a limited military move by the Russians in eastern Ukraine? As part of the demand for a tough response against Putin, will Germany agree to cancel the Russian gas pipeline project it needs? Not at all sure.
That is, precisely because of and despite Russia’s relative weaknesses in this great global struggle and the pretty bad cards that have been dealt to it, Putin manages to maintain his status as a world player to be reckoned with. He realizes he is incapable of reaching a decision in Western terms of knockout. He uses the weapon of the weak: a perpetual war of attrition, which involves the use of tools outside the accepted rules of the game, to achieve what he wants: the weakening of the West and the redesign of regional and global order.
And here it is worth remembering, the West has no privilege to lose in this campaign. That Russia’s victory in the current crisis in Ukraine will prove to Putin and his authoritarian allies that the rules of the game can be changed. And these rules are the ones that have allowed Western citizens the security and prosperity since the last time these conventions were completely broken.