2024-04-30 22:42:02
2023 was a year of temperature records and it does not seem that 2024 will be left behind. In fact, we have barely touched the third month of the year and we have already experienced temperatures and climatic phenomena that are far from normal. But things could be even worse. In fact, according to a new study, published in Scientific ReportsIt is expected that The boy push new heat records in the remainder of 2024.
It is important to remember that both El Niño and La Niña They are natural and cyclical phenomena, which initially have nothing to do with climate change. However, in recent years it has been seen that global warming can make its consequences extreme. In fact, it is often talked about Intense and moderate children and it could be that the climatic situation we are experiencing leads to even more intense cases.
It is important to take this into account, to prevent the areas that will be most affected, both by heat records and by droughts or floods. It cannot be known for sure, but, according to the models carried out by these scientists, the probability of extreme scenarios is by 90%. It is too high a percentage to look the other way.
What are El Niño and La Niña?
El Niño and La Niña are the extremes of what is known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This is a change in Pacific temperatures, which occurs in cycles of between three and eight years. At the coldest end of these cycles is La Niña, while El Niño is the warmest
Since precipitation, hurricanes and many other meteorological phenomena are the result of the interaction between ocean currents and the atmosphere, it is clear that this does not only affect water temperature. There are many more consequences, which could be extreme due to the climate change.
Two possible scenarios were modeled in the study. Credit: Ning Jiang and Congwen Zhu
Heat records and much more
The authors of the research that has just been published have developed two climate models based on different hypotheses. On the one hand, a moderate Niño and, on the other, a much more intense one.
Taking into account what happened next year and the current atmospheric and climatic parameters, the consequences of both scenarios have been analyzed. If that moderate Child were given, the Bay of Bengal and the Philippines They would be the most affected areas. The Philippines would experience an intense drought and the water off the coast of Bengal would become so warm that corals They would be greatly affected.
The latter, logically, would be a catastrophe for the ecosystem, but the problem does not stop there. Coral reefs, given their hard and irregular shape, cushion much of the wave energy, avoiding flooding in coastal areas. If corals die, the population may suffer more harshly from the effects of climate change.
On the other hand, if El Niño brings us a more intense episode, serious heat records would be produced in the Caribbean, the South China Sea, the Amazon and Alaska.Again, this would bring similar consequences to those of the coral. For example, drought in the Amazon could increase the intensity of fires, while heat in Alaska would encourage permafrost to melt. Under this frozen layer, there may be anything from pathogenic microorganisms for which we are not prepared to stores of radon, radioactive and carcinogenic gas.
El Niño can bring many surprises this year and none of them good. We will have to continue monitoring its evolution when it arrives.
By: HIPERTEXTUAL