2024-06-07 11:26:00
Creator: Elchin Alioglu, Pattern
There are various potentialities relating to the method of signing the ultimate peace settlement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Some say that the doc shall be signed earlier than the COP29 summit to be held in Baku, whereas others advise to not hurry, as new issues have arisen within the strategy of signing the settlement.
In that case, when will the method on the Baku-Iravan observe finish with a logical and constructive finish?
Though the query is rhetorical, it’s easy sufficient. The reply consists of a number of chances and predictions, all of which, with out exception, are associated in a method or one other to the present scenario, in addition to to occasions that will happen within the close to future.
Let’s attempt to analyze the chances by taking a look at them within the format of thesis and antithesis.
1. The peace settlement shall be signed by COP29. The Convention of the Events (COP) to the United Nations (UN) Framework Conference on Local weather Change is held yearly and the presidency rotates among the many 5 UN areas. Azerbaijan will chair the twenty ninth session of the Convention of the Events (COP29) to be held in Baku this November. Azerbaijan has wealthy expertise in internet hosting worldwide occasions. Baku Stadium was chosen because the venue for the occasion.
Armenia additionally has expectations relating to COZ-29 to be held in Baku. So, in line with the claims within the Armenian media, the go to of the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan to Baku isn’t an exception.
Though the official Iravan instantly denied this declare, the unfold of the data, whilst a faux, exhibits that the authorities of Armenia are concerned about signing a peace settlement by November. “Curiosity” is comprehensible: “The Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Province is the territory of Armenia” is included within the Declaration of Independence and the preamble of the Structure of Armenia.
Though neither that autonomous province nor Nagorno-Karabakh isn’t within the territorial-administrative division of our nation, the territorial declare in opposition to Azerbaijan stays within the supreme regulation of Armenia. To ensure that the peace settlement to be sustainable, there needs to be no authorized foundation for any makes an attempt at revanchism and territorial claims in opposition to our nation in Armenia. Moreover, even when a peace settlement is signed between Baku and Yerevan, the revanchists in Armenia will say that this doc is in opposition to the nation’s Structure. On this case, the Constitutional Courtroom of Armenia can declare the doc illegitimate.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is in a rush for this very cause, he needs to signal the peace settlement as quickly as attainable. That is the explanation why Armenia is the deal with of the narratives that the doc shall be signed earlier than the beginning of COP29. Nonetheless, if the official Yerevan doesn’t make the mandatory adjustments to the Structure, the peace settlement to be signed might be disputed by Yerevan at any time.
2. Armenians say “we’re prepared”. What does it imply? The assertion of the Ministry of Overseas Affairs of Armenia “it’s attainable to signal the peace settlement inside a month” is definitely bravado, a synthesis of illusions and actuality.
As well as, the Ministry of Overseas Affairs of Armenia for some cause believes that the mandatory adjustments to the Structure and the elimination of the territorial declare in opposition to Azerbaijan from this doc are “an try by official Baku to intervene within the inner affairs of Armenia”.
It’s a utterly absurd and idiotic assertion.
The request to cancel the territorial declare in opposition to Azerbaijan is a very authorized situation of our nation, in line with worldwide regulation. Failure to cancel that declare generally is a utterly authorized, respectable cause for Azerbaijan to start out navy operations in opposition to Armenia, i.e. “casus belli”. In fact, we do not need struggle – however we have now no intention of agreeing to somebody’s declare to our territories, particularly to incorporate that declare within the Structure.
3. What’s Nikol Pashinyan’s objective? The progress of the processes in Armenia exhibits that Nikol Pashinyan managed to weaken the potential of the protest actions led by Archbishop Bagrat, that’s, Vazgen Galstanyan, who needed to overthrow him and throw him out of energy and throw him in jail. The kinetic vitality of the Armenian church, the diaspora organizations of the Armenian communities within the USA, Russia and France, the “Karabakh clan” of Armenians initially from Karabakh, and the leaders of this clan, former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, is about to expire of kinetic vitality.
For the reason that potential political vitality of Reverend Bagrat was already at a minimal, the Pashinyan authorities weren’t anxious.
Official Baku intends to aggressively proceed the peace talks, regardless of the puppet video games of the Yerevan authorities relating to the Armenian Structure. It’s also emphasised that there are constructive developments within the negotiations. Though no particulars about these developments have been disclosed, it may be assumed that sure and concrete agreements have already been reached between the events.
The official assertion that Nikol Pashinyan won’t attend the COP29 summit in Baku may very well imply that the peace settlement won’t be signed till the tip of this yr.
4. Delimitation earlier than the peace settlement? The method of delimitation and demarcation of the standard state border between Azerbaijan and Armenia has already began. The method of liberating and returning 4 out of seven Kalmyk villages occupied by Armenia since 32 years of Gazakh area was the actual starting of the delimitation course of.
As quickly as that course of began, that’s, on April 19, protest actions had been began below the management of Archbishop Bagrat, that’s, Vazgen Galstanyan. At the moment, Pashinyan has weakened the resistance potential of these actions and pushed Galstanyan ahead, and has not retreated from the forces. Quite the opposite, the authorities in Yerevan attacked the trio “Church-Diaspora – Karabakh Armenian clan” and began to destroy them.
On this case, it may be stated that the delimitation course of will proceed and shall be accomplished efficiently.
The following stage is the signing of the peace settlement. If Nikol Pashinyan retains the scenario as it’s and doesn’t obtain the mandatory adjustments to the Structure of Armenia, Yerevan will proceed to be excluded from all regional initiatives in our area.
For now, the delimitation course of is occurring – it depends upon Yerevan whether or not the peace settlement shall be signed in parallel with it or after the stated course of.
5. Will there be a referendum in Armenia? A ultimate peace settlement is a prerequisite for the institution of sustainable peace and secure safety within the South Caucasus. Because of this, a referendum on adjustments to the Structure needs to be held in Armenia. Nikol Pashinyan should discover a cause for the referendum that may persuade the Armenians.
The truth that the territorial claims in opposition to Azerbaijan stay within the Armenian Structure minimizes the probabilities of some lasting peace.
The management of Armenia ought to now suppose critically and take mandatory steps if it needs the angle and improvement.