German Chancellor warned Moscow about the "high cost" of an attack on Ukraine | News from Germany about Germany

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has warned Moscow of the serious consequences of an invasion of Ukraine. “Any further violation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine will entail high costs for Russia – political, economic and geostrategic,” the head of the German government said on Saturday, February 19, at the Munich Security Conference.

Scholz called for diplomacy without naivete

The threat of war in Europe is by no means off the agenda, Scholz stressed and called on Russia to take steps to de-escalate the situation. He once again expressed readiness for a diplomatic way of resolving the conflict. “We need as much diplomacy as possible, but without naivete,” the chancellor explained. Negotiations are the only way to interrupt the “crisis dynamics”, he is sure.

Scholz said that he had no illusions and did not expect quick successes, but “the fact remains that Russia has all the possibilities and resources” for military aggression against Ukraine. Therefore, it is necessary “to use even small doors through which you can open a space for negotiations,” Olaf Scholz urged.

No decisions on Ukraine’s accession to NATO are planned

According to the German Chancellor, the Kremlin declared the issue of Ukraine’s possible entry into NATO a casus belli (a formal reason for declaring war. – Ed.), which is paradoxical, since no decisions are planned in this regard.

At the same time, the head of the German government assured everyone that Germany would defend NATO allies in the event of an attack. “Germany unconditionally guarantees the implementation of Article 5 (of the North Atlantic Treaty. – Ed.),” he said. She shows her solidarity in practice, in particular in the form of an expanded presence of the Bundeswehr in the Baltic countries, as well as by helping NATO control airspace in southeastern Europe, Scholz said.

The conflict with the Russian Federation is the main topic of the Munich Conference

The Munich Security Conference is taking place against the backdrop of a sharply aggravated crisis associated with the threat of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This topic is a key one at the current forum, where for the first time in many years there is no Russian delegation. On the eve of the head of the “DNR” and “LNR” Denis Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik distributed video messages announcing the evacuation of the population to Russia. Metadata in Telegram shows that both appeals were recorded two days earlier, on February 16, although Pushilin himself speaks of “today” in the appeal.

On February 18, a car exploded in the center of Donetsk, and the authorities of the “LPR” announced explosions on a gas pipeline in Lugansk. US President Joe Biden said he expects Russia to attack Ukraine in “the coming days.” The head of the White House said he was confident that Putin had already made such a decision, including the decision to seize Kiev. However, Biden admitted that through diplomatic efforts, the Russian invasion could still be prevented.

By the morning of February 19, thousands of residents of Donbass were taken to the Rostov region, and other regions of the Russian Federation also declared their readiness to accept Ukrainian refugees. On the same day, general mobilization was announced in the “DNR” and “LNR”. According to Western intelligence agencies, about 150,000 Russian troops are stationed in the regions along the Ukrainian border. Moscow says it is not planning an attack.

See also:

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
The collapse of the Soviet Union and the creation of the CIS
In December 1991, Ukraine, Russia and Belarus documented the collapse of the USSR. Moscow obviously hoped to maintain its influence through the CIS and cheap gas supplies. But it turned out differently. The Russian Federation and Belarus created a union state, Ukraine increasingly looked to the West. In the photo: Leonid Kravchuk, Nursultan Nazarbayev, Boris Yeltsin and Stanislav Shushkevich during the official founding of the CIS in Almaty.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Legacy of the USSR and the Budapest Memorandum
Ukraine inherited from the USSR almost a million strong army and the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal in the world. Kiev refused the missiles, handing them over to Russia in exchange for economic assistance and security guarantees (Budapest Memorandum of 1994). While the West did not reciprocate Kiev and was not going to integrate it into its structures, the reaction of the Russian Federation was restrained. In the photo: Russian and US leaders Boris Yeltsin and Bill Clinton.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Cracks in Post-Soviet Friendship: Tuzla Conflict
The first major diplomatic crisis between Moscow and Kiev occurred under President Putin. In the fall of 2003, Russia suddenly began building a dam in the Kerch Strait towards the Ukrainian island of Tuzla. Kiev considered this an attempt to redistribute borders. The conflict was resolved after a personal meeting of the presidents. Construction was stopped, but the first cracks appeared on the facade of friendly relations between the two countries.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Orange Revolution 2004
In the presidential elections in Ukraine in 2004, the Russian Federation actively supported the pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych, but the Orange Revolution prevented him from winning amid accusations of fraud. Pro-Western politician Viktor Yushchenko became president. His victory became the starting point for changes in the policy of the Russian Federation, designed to prevent what Moscow calls “color revolutions.”

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Shutting off Ukraine’s “gas valve” in the 2000s
During Viktor Yushchenko’s presidency, the Russian Federation twice shut off Ukraine’s “gas valve” – in 2006 and 2009, which led to interruptions in transit supplies to Europe. In the photo: a Gazprom employee at the Sudzha gas measuring station, 200 meters from the Ukrainian border, Kursk Region, Russia, 2009.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
The promise of NATO membership
The key event happened in 2008. At the NATO summit in Bucharest, US President George W. Bush tried to get Ukraine and Georgia to receive a Membership Action Plan (MAP). Putin sharply objected, making it clear that he did not fully recognize the independence of Ukraine. As a result, Germany and France blocked Bush’s plan. Ukraine and Georgia were promised NATO membership, but no date.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Ukraine’s course towards the European Union
It was not possible to move quickly towards joining NATO, and Ukraine set a course for economic rapprochement with the EU. In the summer of 2013, the Russian Federation began to exert massive pressure on Kiev, almost cutting off Ukrainian exports at the border. The Yanukovych government has suspended preparations for signing an association agreement with Brussels. Soon protests began in Ukraine, in February 2014 Yanukovych fled to Russia.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Russian annexation of Crimea
A power vacuum emerged in Ukraine, in March 2014 Russia annexed Crimea. This was a turning point, the beginning of an undeclared war. Pictured: Russian military in Crimea (Simferopol, March 2014).

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
War in Donbass
At the same time, Russian and local paramilitary structures provoked an outbreak of separatism in the Donbass, “people’s republics” were proclaimed in Donetsk and Luhansk, which were led by people who had come from the Russian Federation in unmarked uniforms. Kiev reacted slowly, waiting for the presidential elections at the end of May 2014, and only then decided on a large-scale use of force.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Birth of the Normandy Format
In early June 2014, in France, at events marking the 70th anniversary of the Allied landings in Normandy, newly elected President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko met for the first time with his Russian counterpart Putin through the mediation of the leaders of Germany and France. This is how the “Norman format” was born.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
“Ilovaisky cauldron”
In the summer of 2014, the Ukrainian army began to push back the separatists, but at the end of August, Russia, according to Kiev, used its army on a large scale in the Donbass. Moscow denies this. The peak of the conflict was the defeat of the Ukrainian forces near Ilovaisk. The war along the entire front line ended with the signing of a ceasefire in Minsk in September, which was quickly broken.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Positional war continues
In early 2015, the separatists went on a broad offensive. Kiev accused Moscow of using an unmarked army, the Russian Federation denied everything. Ukrainian forces were defeated near the city of Debaltseve. Then, with the mediation of Germany and France, “Minsk-2” was signed, an agreement that still remains the main document for the settlement of the conflict. None of its points has been fully implemented.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
The concentration of Russian troops on the border of Ukraine
In 2021, there was a new aggravation. Russia twice, in spring and autumn, drew up its troops to the western borders. Ukrainian and Western intelligence reports about the threat of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. To defuse the situation, a series of international negotiations took place in the West. However, the Russian Federation demands guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO and lets know that it is not going to withdraw troops yet.
Author: Roman Goncharenko