In a burst of nostalgia reserved for declaring independence, Hassan Nasrallah opened his television interview with the Iranian propaganda channel Al-Alam last week.
It has been 30 years since Israel eliminated its predecessor, Abbas Mousavi, on February 16, 1992. Since that day, it seems that no such prominent spokesman for the Ayatollahs’ regime has emerged in Tehran. A speaker who manages to captivate his fans and enemies alike. A man who can rightly be seen as the Arab mouthpiece of the Islamic Republic.
From the moment Hezbollah was established by the Iranians in 1982, its leaders were subject to the will of the supreme leader in Iran, and so was Nasrallah. His blind obedience to the ayatollahs, which did not crack even after the fall of thousands of Hezbollah fighters on the battlefields in the Syrian civil war, or after the assassination of Mustafa Bader a-Din, did not prevent Nasrallah from denying in an interview the essence of the Shiite movement. “These are things that were heard until the election. Old talk, like Paddy. Hezbollah includes 100,000 fighters in addition to the other institutions and frameworks, and gains masses of Lebanese supporters.”
The choice to be naive
Nasrallah’s remarks caused a stir in Lebanon. Political sources were amazed at the televised show of innocence, especially given the role Hezbollah plays in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and even Bahrain.
For example, the Saudi press recently reported the assassination of an adviser to the organization in its war against the Houthi militia in Yemen, while in Bahrain dozens were arrested in 2018 on suspicion of belonging to Hezbollah.
Nasrallah’s denial is intended to neutralize the harsh criticism he is facing in the face of corruption and the economic collapse, the one that fuels tensions with Christians and Sunnis in Lebanon. After Hezbollah supporters were shot dead in a demonstration in October 2021 – Christian leader Samir Jajah was charged with murder.
Just last month, Saad Hariri, head of the Sunni al-Mustaqbal party, again announced his retirement. The man who always returns has blamed Iran for the crisis that the land of cedars is going through, and it is estimated that the one who will replace him is his brother Baha’i, who is hostile to Hezbollah and denies cooperation with him.
In an article published this month at the Washington Institute for Middle East Policy, author Hanin Gader estimated that while opposition groups and civil society would not get enough seats in parliament for a landslide victory, they could increase their power by at least ten more seats – putting an end to the current majority. The article highlighted that Nasrallah’s main ally, President Michel Aoun’s Christian Free Patriotic Party, is crashing in polls to less than 13% support. She further notes that dissatisfaction with Hezbollah is spreading even in the Shiite community.
According to her, Hezbollah and its allies are also concerned about a jump in the number of Lebanese exiles registered to vote, most of them Christians living in the West. Against this background, the fear is that Nasrallah will try to postpone the election or prevent the formation of a government.
Bail against assault
Dr. Shimon Shapira, of the Jerusalem Center for Public and State Affairs, estimates that Hezbollah will retain its power in parliament in the May elections, unless there is a change in the fabric of forces. , He does not believe that Nasrallah will try to abolish the ethnic key, otherwise the state will disintegrate into cantons, which will prevent him from controlling it.
Beyond the Lebanese Game of Thrones, Nasrallah’s commitment to Khamenei may stand the test of time against the possibility of Israel attacking Iran in the future. Shapira clarifies that Nasrallah also lied in the interview regarding Hezbollah’s response to the attack, when he claimed that the organization would convene and decide what to do depending on the circumstances. “If Israel attacks the nuclear facilities in Iran – missiles will be launched immediately in the direction of Tel Aviv. They will not have to ask. There is already such a directive from Iran. “More than that, all the strategic long-range missiles that Hezbollah has, the entire precision project, are designed to deter Israel from hitting nuclear facilities.”
The cardinal mistake: the kidnapping
Shapira also disagrees with the notion that Nasrallah is a considered leader and perhaps even an “asset to Israel,” especially given his unfortunate decision that led to the Second Lebanon War.
“During 30 years of Nasrallah’s rule, he made no cardinal mistakes, except in 2006. He abducted two soldiers (Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev; SQ) and thought Israel would not respond, and made one of the colossal mistakes of his reign. So how do you explain that? Even though he is ostensibly the number one expert in the Arab world for Israel – look what a mistake he made in 2006. This is a mistake he has not made to date. “Since 2008, when Imad Mourniyeh was assassinated, he has been sitting in a bunker and not coming out of his hiding place.”
Published in “Israel Today”.