Now that Vladimir Putin has “come to see” the cards in the hands of NATO, Western countries are trying to organize themselves to define a common response in the form of sanctions. It will not be easy because it is no mystery that the great European countries, Germany, France, Italy and Spain are very reluctant to face the possibility of hitting hard. Unlike the United States and Great Britain and the more hard-line-oriented Northern European countries. It must be said that the countries of Western Europe are also the ones that economically the more they have to lose by an exclusion of Russia from trading in raw materials and more. “Our European, American, British colleagues will not stop and calm down until they have exhausted all their possibilities for the so-called punishment of Russia. They are already there threatening with all sorts of sanctions or, as they say now, the mother of all penalties. Well, we’re used to it. We know that the sanctions will still be imposed, in any case. With or without reason “: said the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov.
On the table there is a little bit of everything but for now little concrete. The sharpest weapon is the exclusion of Russia from the Swift system (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication), referred to by Russian Minister Lavrov as the “mother of all sanctions”. Swift is the network through which Banks from all over the world “dialogue” and manage their transactions. This option it would effectively cut Moscow out of the big financial circuitswith repercussions on all markets, eventuality also unwelcome to China that with Russia makes and receives payments mostly in dollars through this infrastructure.
In order of importance there is then the stop to the North Stream 2 pipelinedoubling of an existing pipeline that runs in Baltic Sea directly from the Russian coasts to the German ones, bypassing Ukraine. The pipeline has been ready for months now with a capacity of 55 billion cubic meters of gas a year (5 times the Tap to be clear) but it was “frozen” precisely in relation to the developments of the Ukrainian crisis. A little while ago the chancellor Olaf Scholz claimed that Germany has authorization suspended of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
Forever frowned upon by the United Stateswho consider it an element of further rapprochement between Moscow and Berlin as well as a way to loosen Washington’s grip on gas flows to Europe passing through Kiev. Retaliation on gas they are destined to inflame even more oil and especially gas prices. Factor that would affect the European states. In recent weeks, the United States has taken steps to try to insure liquid gas supplies by ship coming from countries such as Qatar or from the USA itself which, it must be said, would have been due to the stop of Russian gas towards the EU a lot to gain.
Almost the 70% of the gas that Russia exports ends up in Europe, Moscow recently signed agreements with Beijing for additional supplies but China will not replace the EU, also for geopolitical considerations. In the meantime, Bloomberg has calculated that thanks to the tensions on quotations and the hikes in gas prices, Russia could have cashed in around 2021. 65 billion dollars in addition from its exports. Then there are the individual sanctions which would affect the assets of members of the government and senior Russian personalities involved in crisis decisions, freezing their assets held abroad. Strategic state-owned companies such as Gazprom or publicly controlled banks would also be targeted Vtb Bank e Sberbank.
Yesterday the US president Joe Biden signed the executive order banning the US investment, trade and financing to breakaway regions of Ukraine and the ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield he said there will be more US sanctions against Russia tomorrow. Tuesday should also move on UK, while the European Union will always meet on Tuesday for a first evaluation. The underlying structure is sanctions that will intensify based on the decisions of the Kremlin with the harshest that would be triggered only in the event of a real invasion of Ukraine.
This morning the first green light from the meeting of EU ambassadors (Coreper II) to the initial measures package. The French presidency stressed that “there is unity” on the part of member states in the reaction to Russian decisions. “There is determination to take targeted sanctions against the people involved“In operations in the Donbass,” in coordination with our allies “, explains the French presidency. A new Coreper II meeting is expected at the end of the day, after the informal Foreign Affairs Council in Paris. The first package of sanctions by the EU ambassadors, according to what is learned, includes the ban on imports and exports from Ukrainian separatist entities on the model of what was previously done for Crimea, the inclusion in the black list of names and entities (politicians, military, economic operators, exponents of disinformation mechanisms) plus any additional personalities among the commanders of the Russian “peacekeeping” forces and leader of the separatist republics. The green light – which for now is not formal but in principle – also concerns the non-recognition of Russian passports issued to citizens of the two entities.
“I am in constant contact with allies to find a peaceful solution to the crisis and avoid a war in the heart of Europe. The path of dialogue remains essential, but we are already defining within the European Union measures and sanctions against Russia “, said the Prime Minister today. Mario Draghi. In recent days Draghi he had hoped that the retaliatory measures would not focus on gas supplies.