French President Macron hoped to change the mood in the country with early elections. But his calculations didn’t work out. The right-wing nationalists around Le Pen are clearly ahead after the first round.
According to initial projections, the right-wing national Rassemblement National (RN) is ahead in the first round of the early parliamentary elections in France. Together with his allies, he achieved 33 to 34.2 percent, as broadcasters TF1 and France 2 reported after the polls closed.
President Emmanuel Macron’s center camp finished third with 20.7 to 22 percent, behind the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire alliance with 28.1 to 29.1 percent. According to the institutions, the number of voters was between 65.8 and 67 percent.
RN probably does not have a clear majority
Initial forecasts suggest that right-wing Le Pen and her allies could be the strongest force in the lower house with 230 to 280 seats. They could, however, lose a clear majority of 289 seats. The Left could also make gains and get 125 to 200 seats. Macron’s Liberals are in danger of falling just 60 to 100 seats.
However, it is difficult to make precise statements regarding the distribution of seats as the smallest seats are allocated in the first round. The run-off elections on July 7 will be decisive in most constituencies.
Lots of runoff elections with three candidates
To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive a clear majority of the votes cast. This must be in line with at least 25 per cent of those entitled to vote. This means that if voter turnout is low, even candidates with more than 50 percent in the first round still have to go to the second round. To advance to the second round, candidates must receive the votes of at least 12.5 percent of registered voters. So, it’s possible that there will be three-way constellations in the second round as well. A simple majority is enough.
According to figures from the Ipsos Institute in Paris, between 65 and 85 MPs have already been selected. In the second round there will be between 285 and 315 three-way constellations, and run-off elections between two candidates in only 150 to 170 constituencies. So RN comes to the second round in 390 to 430 constituencies. The left-green electoral alliance could reach the second round in 370 to 410 constituencies, the government camp in 290 to 330 constituencies.
The first alliances for the second round of voting in sight
The distribution of seats will largely depend on whether the parties still form local coalitions and do not attract candidates, for example to prevent an RN victory. It has already been announced by the French Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, that around 60 candidates will be withdrawn from the government camp to prevent the victory of the right-wing populist candidates. “No vote can go to the Rassemblement National,” he said.
The leading Social Democrat Raphaël Glucksmann also called for a decisive fight against the right-wing nationalists: “The only goal of the week is to prevent a clear majority for the Rassemblement National.” The founder of the French Left Party, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, called on left-wing candidates to withdraw in constituencies where the left alliance came third and the right came first in the run-off elections.
The bourgeois Republicans, who received almost ten percent of the vote, do not want to make any electoral proposals. However, its controversial chairman Éric Ciotti asked people to join his much-criticized alliance with the RN.
A bitter victory for Macron
For Macron, the result is a bitter defeat. After the RN’s electoral victory in the European elections on June 9, he dissolved the National Assembly and called for new elections, hoping to extend the relative majority of his centrist forces in the lower house. However, his hopes that the French would vote differently in a national election than in the EU-wide ballot do not appear to be confirmed.
The early election is not about the presidency; If the right-wing populace gets a clear majority in parliament, it could be forced to make their party leader Jordan Bardella head of government. This could pave the way for former RN party leader Le Pen to become president in 2027.
France is under constant threat
The RN claims to form the new government. However, he only wants to do this with a clear majority of seats. If neither camp wins a clear majority, France would face tough negotiations for a coalition government. It is currently not predictable that the various grassroots political actors will come together to form a governing coalition after the election.
Without a clear majority in the National Assembly, France would face gridlock. The current government may remain in office as a transitional form of government or an expert government may be installed – but a government could hardly initiate new projects. Instead of new initiatives, administration would be the order of the day in France.
For Germany and Europe, this would mean that Paris, as an important player in Europe and part of the German-French alliance, would no longer be actively available. Macron cannot dissolve parliament and hold new elections again until July 2025.
Macron calls for a broad coalition
Given the electoral victory of the right-wing, Macron called for a broad coalition. “In light of the Rassemblement National, it is necessary to establish a broad, democratic and republican coalition for the second round of elections,” Macron said, according to the Elysée Palace. The high number of voters in the first round “shows the importance of this election for all our colleagues and the will to clarify the political situation,” the President emphasized. “Your democratic election forces us.”
On the other hand, Le Pen welcomed the election results. Macron’s bloc is “almost wiped out,” she said. “The French have shown their will to turn the page on seven years of contemptible and corrosive power” said Macron, who was elected in the first round in her northern constituency. She also asked the French to give the RN a “clear majority” for their party in the second round of voting.
The National Assembly is one of the two chambers of the French parliament. He is involved in legislation and can overthrow the government with a vote of no confidence. The Senate is the second chamber of parliament. This is currently conservative.
Julia Borutta, ARD Paris, tagesschau, June 30, 2024 11:46 pm