2024-07-04 04:55:20
- Analysts differ on whether SOL Spot ETFs would be possible without futures markets.
- The lack of regulatory clarity on SOL could be a challenge, but some analysts are confident it will be approved if Trump wins.
It seems that the market is divided on whether the United States Spot Solan [SOL]. ETFs could become a reality after recent filings by digital asset managers VanEck and 21Shares.
But most agree that the US election could determine the fate of SOL ETFs. However, there are still differing views on how the lack of ETF futures could delay approval.
Recentlyan interview Mathew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, argued that the ETF futures requirement is a “psychological operation by the SEC.” He added:
‘There are some ETFs that trade in markets that do not involve the futures market in terms of price formation, such as uranium ETFs, energy ETFs… With the slight change in the regulatory environment in Washington, we believe that this (ETF SOL) is approved ‘.
Galaxy Digital disagrees with SOL ETFs
However, Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas called VanEck’s SOL ETF presentation “call option» about the US elections.
This meant that it could be given the green light under a new administration, especially with Donald Trump getting the first place again.
Sigel also expressed a similar sentiment. He argued that a SOL ETF could be approved even if Biden wins the election, as long as the current SEC chairman is replaced or SOL is reclassified as a commodity.
However, Steve Kurz, Galaxy Digital’s global head of asset management, did not agree with Sigel’s position. Kurz emphasized that, based on previous legislation and judicial process,
“For Solana to be an ETF, a futures market is needed. As for ETH, Solana is there, but not for him.”
Overall, market expectations for the SOL ETF green light remained low, with Polymerket indicating an approximately 13% probability of approval by 2024.
Donald Trump is seen by most market watchers as pro-cryptocurrency, so his victory could increase the chance of SOL ETF approval.
On the price charts, SOL traded at $146, down a slight 1% in the past 24 hours, but up 7% when adjusted weekly following the optimism of the SOL ETF filing.
However, technical price indicators sparkle neutral position at press time, meaning SOL’s price could go in either direction.
This is an automatic translation of our English version.
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