2024-07-04 22:00:36
“Putin likely believes that Russia can prolong the war indefinitely and win a war of attrition if it can ensure that Ukraine is denied decisive international support,” the July 2, 2024 report said.
Analysts say Russia’s slow but steady gains on the battlefield since late 2023 have vindicated Putin’s assessment and encouraged him to avoid any real ceasefire that could end the war.
ISW also estimates that freezing the war along the current demarcation line will provide Russia with strategically and operationally important Ukrainian territory from which the aggressor country will be able to resume aggression using an experienced army and a restored defense-industrial base.
Among other things, Moscow is conducting an intensified information campaign aimed at pushing Ukraine to negotiate with the Russian Federation on Russian terms. This in turn will only weaken the Ukrainian state.
Analysts also mentioned Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s request for a ceasefire, which he voiced during his unannounced visit to Kyiv. Experts concluded that fulfilling the request could entail support for the Kremlin’s broader strategic message. In particular, it aims to create the operational pause desired by the Russian Federation or to convince international partners to abandon Ukraine.
Earlier, “Kursor” reported that Putin will not be satisfied with the conquest of Donbass. Many in Moscow believe that the current strengthening of the Russian army and the weakening of Ukraine’s reserves create favorable conditions for a possible victory.