2024-07-06 23:44:09
The prices of the main grain commodities started to go up on some of the world’s stock markets in the first week of July, report the experts of the Sofia Commodity Exchange (SSC), quoted by BTA.
The SSB reminds that at the end of June, the International Grain Council (IGC) published its updated forecast for the state of the global grain balance 2024/25. In the new version of the balance, another, albeit insignificant, decrease in the estimate of world production can be seen of wheat, which is compensated by a slight increase in the yield of corn worldwide – from 1220 million tons to 1223 million tons. For wheat, the estimate was lowered by 1.4 million tons – from 794.5 to 793.1 million tons, which is a repetition of the result of the 2023/24 marketing year.
The reduction in the global wheat production forecast comes from the unfavorable situation in Russia. In its June report, the Council cut the size of Russia’s new crop by 3.7 million tonnes, from 85.5 to 81.8 million tonnes, compared with 91 million tonnes harvested in 2023/24 and a record 95 .4 million tonnes in 2022/23.
The forecast for Russian wheat exports in the new season has been reduced by 3.3 million tons – from 46.6 to 43.3 million tons, which is 11 million tons less than in 2023/24. There are no significant changes in the forecast data for the other main wheat exporting countries.
The forecast for the production of wheat in the EU is unchanged (129.3 million tons), and the estimate for Ukraine shows a minimal decrease in the forecast data from 23.7 to 23.4 million tons. Expectations for the amount of Ukrainian wheat exports have not changed – 13 million tons. However, the estimate for exports from the EU has been increased by 1 million tons – from 32.8 to 33.8 million tons.
In the first week of July, the FOB price of bread wheat in Chicago rose $6 to $229 per ton for July-August delivery. France also saw an increase of 3 euros to 223 euros per ton. In Ukraine, there is a price reduction from 227 to 223 dollars per ton. In Russia, the change is also negative – by 10 dollars less, to 230 dollars per ton.
US corn prices were down $4 at $184 a tonne. In France, the price rose by $3 to $205 per ton, and in Ukraine – minus $2 to $195 per ton.
The price of barley in Ukraine fell another $7 to $185 a tonne for delivery in July, and rapeseed on the Euronext exchange for August delivery continued its meteoric rise by another €29.50 to €500.75 a tone. The main factor for the rise in the price of rapeseed is the unfavorable agro-meteorological conditions in the European Union and, above all, the information about the disappointing harvests in France after the torrential rains.
Crude sunflower oil contracts on the Rotterdam Stock Exchange have seen a number of swings since the start of the year. For July delivery, they moved again this week, jumping $20 to $1,045 a tonne. Refined sugar is down $0.80 this week for August delivery, or $584.30 a tonne on the London Stock Exchange.
At the Sofia Stock Exchange, trade in grain goods remains calm. Bread wheat was available in large quantities at BGN 388 per ton with delivery to the buyer (DAP delivery). Deals were concluded for fodder wheat, delivered locally, at a price of BGN 400 per ton. Corn for immediate delivery was offered in the range of BGN 360 to BGN 380 per ton, and oil sunflower – from BGN 810 to BGN 840 per ton.
Prices of basic food items remained stable at the same level as initial prices. Oil in bottles was sold at BGN 2.20 per liter, as well as unrefined oil at BGN 1,750 per ton. The offer of yellow peas in big back sacks of one ton continues at a starting price of BGN 1,200 per ton.
In the sub-district “Industrial goods” of SSB, propane butane gas was sold at BGN 933.33/thousand liters.