2024-07-07 05:01:00
After the rise of the dollar that seemed to reach a ceiling during the last days of the week and the rest of the local asset prices have recovered after digesting the negative impact of the announcement 10 days ago by the authorities economic, a question is raised in the market: what will be the course of the Central Bank’s reserves, since it is already clearer that the stocks may be gradually eased, but they will remain in place for several more months at least.
The question may take another form based on the inflow of foreign currency: where will the supply of dollars come from in the second half of the year if the BCRA and its president, Santiago Bausilialready started to go through hardship at the end of the second quarter, although the area sold volumes within the parameters in recent years.
The first thing, in any case, is to analyze the exit window of the dollar. The week will start with the payment of restructured bonds due on Tuesday the 9th, amounting to around USD 2,550 million, which will undoubtedly affect reserves. However, the effect will be partial.
The week will begin with the payment of the restructured bonds due on Tuesday the 9th, for which approximately USD 2,550 million must be paid.
In principle, a part, although smaller, is in the hands of the Anses Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS), so they are dollars that remain in the system. Hardly USD 300 million, according to the economist Fernando Marull. A figure three times higher, meanwhile, USD 900 million, is in the hands of local creditors, which could minimize the impact on Central reserves and could even contribute to softening prices.
Meanwhile, the remaining USD 1.3 billion will be paid to non-resident creditors and it is that figure that will account for the change. A week later, USD 645 million must be paid to pay capital maturity to the IMF and in the rest of the month around USD 300 million to other multilateral organizations.
The account for the month is USD 3.6 billion, although this amount is not reflected in the loss of reserves as a whole. There will also be payments in August, although for a figure that does not reach USD 1.5 billion.
In order to calculate the outflow of dollars, it is essential to point out that energy import payments, in view of the low temperatures recorded for several days and which will continue, will also put pressure on the BCRA accounts, although it is worth clarification, it’s worth it. It is likely that the flow will reverse in the following months if the cold subsides. At Central they continue to pay attention to the National Weather Service.
Precisely, energy exports could contribute, starting in September, to the reversal of the expected hard result for the BCRA in the coming months.
In fact, in the first five months of the year, the energy balance was in surplus at USD 2.4 billion and it is expected that it could even reach USD 4 billion by the end of the year, which will inevitably imply foreign net income. currency when the winter goes worst.
In the first five months of the year, the energy balance was in surplus of USD 2.4 billion and it is expected that it could even reach USD 4 billion by the end of the year.
In addition, energy is one of the sectors where companies have investment projects with fresh ink, awaiting the regulation of the Major Investment Incentive System (RIGI). It is known that this process can take up to two months, but it would undoubtedly add up to several dollars, albeit in dribs and drabs this year.
In the same process, the regulatory process, the estimated impact of money laundering is calculated. Although the effect will ultimately be largely fiscal, some contribution in hard currency is also expected, with terms much more immediate than those of the RIGI.
However, the real promise of the Government to overcome the shortage of dollars towards the end of the year is in the countryside.
The account has a lot of flats on the amount he settled and the amount he has left to put. At first glance, this year agriculture liquidated around USD 11,647 million in the first semester, a figure lower than the same period last year, when the drought had a strong impact on the harvest.
Of course, economist Cohen adds to that figure, Martin Polowe have to add the 20% that comes in through the CCL, and the liquidation was about USD 14,558 million.
Due to the price effect, this figure is higher than the figure of 2018, 2019 and 2020 but much lower than that of 2021 and 2022. The concrete thing is that the economic team is convinced that the devaluation prospects and also a rise in stocks before At the end of the year, producers will speed up sales that are now delayed to restart the production process, which would result in more dollar income after August.
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