Written by Philippe Marlière
Things don’t go according to plan. Three weeks ago, French President Emmanuel Macron called for early elections in the hope of regaining political control after a landslide in the European elections. Last Sunday, in the first round of the elections, the far-right National Alarm came out on top, while the left-wing coalition “New People’s Front” finished in second place. Macron’s “Renaissance” party came a distant third.
Now, after getting around 33% in the first round, the far right is on its way to a stunning victory in the second round. If National Alarm gets a clear majority in the National Assembly – taking 289 seats or more – Macron will have to ask Jordan Bardela, the party’s 28-year-old leader, to form a government. Under a system of “cohabitation” with the president, the National Guard will be in power, free to implement its strict anti-immigrant agenda. For the first time since the Vichy regime, France will be in the hands of the great right.
The most likely scenario, however, is that the National Alarm will not have a majority, leading to a “meteor” parliament. Things can get chaotic quickly. As the largest party, National Alarm will continue to try to get the support of the other parties to pass laws – but no one, except maybe a few right-wing Republican MPs, will want to let the far-right rule . With a weakened Macron presiding over an anarchic and reactionary national assembly, France will plunge into a deep political crisis with no solution in sight.
In the event of a hung parliament, Macron would have very few options. No modern French president has faced such political and institutional strife. His only option will be to try to form a so-called national unity government, including MPs from the Renaissance, the Republicans and possibly some moderates from the New People’s Front. But it is doubtful whether such an opportunistic meeting could lead to a majority.
If the numbers come out, who will be prime minister? He should be a political figure who can work with the center left, the center right and the right. This kind of consensual personality is rare in French politics today. In any case, this will only be a temporary solution. Caretaker governments have little political legitimacy and can achieve little except passing budgets to keep the economy afloat. After a year, the constitutionally shortest time frame for the president to use his power again to dissolve the National Assembly, Macron is almost certain to have to do so in order to call new elections. We’ll be back to square one, but in an even more volatile environment.
Overall, the prospects for a national unity government do not look good. Although Macron called for a “great democratic union” on Sunday to defeat the national alarm, since then he has spent more time protesting on the left than on the far right: a surprising sense of priorities, for one might say. If he rejects the “two extremes”, he hopes to win over the centre-left voters. But Macron is very keen. Arguing that the left is as much a threat as the far right, he may discourage mainstream voters from voting for New People’s Front figures over National Alarm candidates. His abstention from voting may facilitate the election of more far-right MPs.
They don’t need help. The National Alarm is likely to emerge as the winner of the election – with or without a majority. The party has control over almost all categories of society and in most regions of France. Only the big cities are still resisting this scourge. He leads all age groups except 18 to 24, although he also attracts significant support from younger voters. The party is strong among workers, white-collar workers and the self-employed. One new feature is that pensioners, Macron’s most loyal category to date, shifted significantly in last month’s European elections.
This far-right victory that is so close today was far away in 2017 in Macron’s first election. The National Alarm then had only eight deputies. That is a long way from today when he is estimated to have more than 200 wins. Macron has vowed to protect France from right-wing extremism. But since taking office, he has borrowed from the National Alarmist playbook, passing controversial laws such as the so-called retirement bill in 2021 that effectively ostracizes Muslims and passing an aggressive immigration bill. last year thanks to the much right support. Instead of defeating the far right, Macron prepared the ground for its success.
It is fitting, in a way, that Macron himself was the main political disaster of this turbulent period. Whatever happens on Sunday, it is clear to all that Macron’s unnecessary gambling has been a huge success and he is responsible for the chaos to come. His power, nationally and internationally, will be greatly reduced and his presidency will collapse. There will certainly be increased pressure on him to resign.
But France’s victory is Macron’s victory. With no power able to rule except perhaps the far right, the country is entering a period of instability and great turmoil. Stability will be a thing of the past. For a country facing major economic, social and even military challenges, this is a terrifying prospect. Such upheaval is unlikely to end the far-right’s lure of change from a broken system in the 2027 presidential election.
France is now on the edge. It is a deeply divided and anxious nation just ahead of a historic election. In spite of the problems from the metaparliament, it is necessary to reject the National Alarm to the power. France rejects the real right and remains an outcast country, loyal to the liberal values of the French Revolution, or succumbs to xenophobia and bitter nationalism. The stakes have never been higher.
*Dr. Marlière is Professor of French and European Politics at University College London
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