2024-07-08 19:22:43
North Korea’s request for ‘sequential return’ rejected
Estimated 100,000 North Korean workers in China
A blow to Kim Jong-un’s regime-based foreign currency earning
It has been reported that China recently issued an ultimatum to North Korea, effectively telling them to “return all North Korean workers dispatched to China.” The residence permits of most North Korean workers in China, estimated at around 100,000, will soon expire, and China is demanding that they all return home. Our government is viewing this as a “very unusual situation.”
The dispatch of overseas workers is the core of North Korea’s foreign currency earning and the basis for maintaining the ‘Kim Jong-un regime’. In particular, about 90% of overseas workers are concentrated in China. Therefore, China’s recent measures are interpreted as an attempt to tame the Kim Jong-un regime by openly expressing its displeasure with North Korea, which is close to an alliance with Russia, and by tightening the North Korean regime’s core financial resources.
According to a government source on the 8th, North Korean authorities requested that China sequentially repatriate workers in China and send new workers back to China to replace them. However, China is said to be maintaining its position that it will first repatriate all workers whose visas are expiring and then accept new workers sequentially. As a result, negotiations between the two sides are reported to be at an impasse. Given that China is refusing to extend the stay of existing North Korean workers and restricting the issuance of visas necessary for dispatching new workers, a large-scale repatriation of North Korean workers currently in China will inevitably have a major impact on North Korea’s foreign currency earnings. Accordingly, North Korea is reported to be taking this situation very sensitively.
North Korea’s overseas worker dispatch is a violation of UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea. In response, North Korea has been sending workers to China illegally by using student and tourist visas in addition to work visas to avoid the eyes of the international community. However, it is known that the majority of North Korean workers will soon have their residence permits expire, and if North Korea does not call them back to their home country, most of them are expected to become illegal residents. If negotiations between North Korea and China for the return of North Korean workers break down, the Chinese authorities are expected to launch a full-scale crackdown on illegal employment and other controls targeting North Korean workers whose residence permits have expired, starting in the second half of the year. A North Korea source said, “There is a possibility that this could become a fuse for a clash between North Korean and Chinese authorities.”
In addition, China is known to have strengthened controls in trade sectors that North Korea relies on China this year. It is said that it has strengthened customs controls on exports to North Korea, as well as crackdowns on maritime smuggling that has been tacitly tolerated, such as coal and refined oil. The U.S. State Department previously estimated in a report on human trafficking released last month that North Korea is sending about 100,000 workers to China, and that North Korea is exploiting up to 90% of the wages of overseas workers, earning hundreds of millions of dollars annually.
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“The ongoing confrontation (between North Korea and China) over the issue of sending back North Korean workers is interpreted as a clear symbol of the rift between the two countries.”
A government source made this assessment on the 8th, saying, “The Chinese authorities have recently made a very unusual request to North Korea to send back all North Korean workers dispatched to China.” In particular, our authorities are also keeping an eye on the recent situation in which China has been cracking down on smuggling goods between North Korea and China, which was thriving via sea. This is because it can be seen as a measure to send a warning to North Korea by touching areas that it had previously left untouched even when there was some friction. The source said, “China is unusually distancing itself from its habitual protection of North Korea,” and predicted, “While watching the level of ties between North Korea and Russia and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, China will likely continue this (distancing) tone for the time being.”
● “China, Customs Control of Items Exported to North Korea”
North Korea officially opened its borders, which had been closed in August last year due to the novel coronavirus, after three years and seven months. As a result, it was expected that long-term workers in China would be replaced by new workers.
However, the Chinese authorities did not cooperate properly in issuing visas to new workers, and this became a difficult situation for North Korea. Without a guarantee of replacement of workers, the amount of foreign currency earned would inevitably decrease, so it was difficult to recall workers. As this deadlock continued, the discontent of North Korean workers staying in China skyrocketed. In January, it was reported that about 2,000 North Korean workers occupied a factory in Helong, Jilin Province, China, and staged a large-scale demonstration to protest unpaid wages.
Meanwhile, China’s recent demand that North Korea “return all workers to North Korea” is interpreted as a symbolic measure to firmly tighten the North’s grip. A North Korea source said, “From Kim Jong-un’s perspective, it must be perplexing that China is demanding that all workers be sent back to North Korea without promising measures such as issuing new visas,” and “It seems that he will not easily accept it.” North Korea is known to have dispatched about 100,000 workers to China. The U.S. State Department analyzes that North Korea exploits up to 90% of the wages of workers dispatched overseas, earning hundreds of millions of dollars annually. A measure to repatriate all workers could be a major blow to North Korea’s foreign currency earnings.
China has taken an all-out crackdown not only on the dispatch of workers but also on trade, which North Korea is completely dependent on. Recently, it has strengthened customs control on items exported to North Korea and even cracked down on smuggling. North Korea’s dependence on Chinese trade exceeds 90%.
It has been reported that China is implementing customs control in a way that checks whether items banned from export to North Korea are included, which is different from previous years. In addition, due to the UN Security Council’s resolution on sanctions against North Korea, the smuggling industry between North Korea and China, which had been thriving mainly through the sea, has also been reported to be in a difficult situation as the Chinese authorities have strengthened their crackdowns on the sea. In particular, it has been reported that many North Korean businessmen who sell coal to China and smuggle refined petroleum to North Korea have recently been caught by our authorities reducing or suspending their businesses due to the strengthened crackdowns. Reflecting this, according to the General Administration of Chinese Customs, North Korea’s imports from China in May this year amounted to $150.38 million, down 8.8% from April.
● “Let’s get closer to North Korea and Russia and tame North Korea by tightening foreign currency”
Our authorities believe that China’s recent ultimatum to Pyongyang demanding the return of all workers in China to North Korea and its strengthening of crackdowns on smuggling between North Korea and China, which it had previously turned a blind eye to, are motivated by complex intentions.
First, as North Korea and Russia held a summit in Pyongyang and signed a treaty that would return to the level of a new Cold War, rapidly becoming closer, it is interpreted that there is an intention to tame North Korea. It also seems to be an intention to minimize friction with the US by regaining control over North Korea ahead of the US presidential election in November. There is even speculation that North Korea will soon rely on the ‘backing’ of Russia and engage in ultra-hardline provocations, such as nuclear tests, that would be burdensome even to China, so China has judged that now is the time to send a strong message to North Korea. A government source said, “China is selecting only things that can immediately deal a blow to the Kim Jong-un regime and is testing North Korea’s reaction,” adding, “If North Korea deviates further from China’s intentions in the future,[China]may take more lethal measures.”
Reporter Shin Gyu-jin [email protected]
Reporter Shin Jin-woo [email protected]
2024-07-08 19:22:43