2024-07-09 01:53:23
Orbán continues to take the position that he could mediate an end to the war in Ukraine, even as Russian dictator Vladimir Putin refuses mediation or serious talks. The Hungarian prime minister is probably trying to divert the West’s attention to possible peace talks, thus aiming to weaken European support for Ukraine, writes ISW.
July 5 V. Orbán published an article in the magazine “Newsweek” in which he accused NATO of choosing conflict over peace and stated that NATO was founded to maintain peace. V. Orban’s article appeared after his visits to Kyiv on July 2. and Moscow on July 5, in which he advocated for Russia and Ukraine to open negotiations.
Analysts say Orban’s push for talks is likely part of his ongoing effort to shift Europe’s attention to discussions of peace talks and away from discussions of military aid to Ukraine.
Orbán has consistently opposed and undermined European Union (EU) efforts to provide military aid to Ukraine, and the shift in European focus away from military aid now that Hungary has assumed the presidency of the EU Council serves this broader goal.
July 5 Bulgarian Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev has offered Bulgaria to mediate peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, stressing that the talks must comply with the UN Charter and international law.
July 6 Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan similarly urged Ukraine to expand and speed up the ongoing peace process in Ukraine to avoid “deepening polarization” and “prioritize diplomacy”.
The calls for negotiations by Orban and others and the Ukraine peace formula are different efforts with different goals, and Russian leader Putin has demonstrated that he is not interested in any negotiated agreement other than a capitulation of Ukraine, ISW notes.
V. Putin rejected Russia’s participation in possible ceasefire negotiation processes and generally denied any interest in the July 4-5 ceasefire. Instead, Putin has demanded Ukraine’s capitulation through “demilitarization” and the handing over of large swathes of territory Russia does not currently occupy, all after months of trying to portray Russia as willing to negotiate but falsely portraying Ukrainian officials as unwilling or unable to negotiate.
Ukraine recently concluded the first of several summits with its partners to lay the groundwork for possible future negotiations that would result in a lasting peace on terms acceptable to Ukraine and its supporters, and dozens of partner states and international organizations, including Hungary, Turkey and Bulgaria, on June 16 . signed a joint peace communiqué in which they confirmed their support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
ISW analysts point out that Ukraine cannot mount a successful counteroffensive effort to support this goal without Western military support in the near to medium term.
2024-07-09 01:53:23