2024-07-09 07:13:06
Author: Elchin Alioglu
Source: Trend
The second round of the extraordinary parliamentary elections in France has ended.
The left-wing “New Popular Front” (Nouveau Front Populaire, NFP) coalition 182, led by French President Emmanuel Macron, “Together for the Republic!” coalition 168, the right-wing “National Unity” Party (Rassemblement National, RN) led by Marine Le Pen and chaired by Jordan Bordella won 143 seats, and the conservative Republican Party won 45 seats. The remaining mandates in the National Assembly, which is the lower house of the French parliament and consists of 577 seats, will be distributed among independent candidates and members of small parties.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the “New People’s Front”, which consists of extreme leftists, communists, social-democrats and “greens”, declared that in order to form a government coalition, under no circumstances will Macron’s “Together!” will not negotiate with
Emmanuel Macron also said that “we have no intention to form a coalition with the leftists.”
As for Marine Le Pen and Jorgen Bardella, they are not going to start any partnership with E. Macron, sticking to their promises.
In the first round of early parliamentary elections, Marine Le Pen was leading with 34 percent of the vote.
Most analysts and political experts said that in the second round of the elections, the right-wing “National Unity” would strengthen its position and win more votes.
Well, what happened, why did the right-wingers become the third political force instead of the leader?
The main reason is the old “Whoever, but not Le Pen!” among French citizens and political forces. that the number of those who are loyal to the slogan does not decrease. Centrists and leftists built a “republican” barrier in front of the rightists. This barrier itself has tilted significantly to the left compared to the parliamentary elections of 2012, 2017 and 2022.
Marine Le Pen’s march to power was thus stopped short of the target.
Since he made statements like “we will get a full majority in the parliament” before and after the first round of elections, the results obtained by the right-wingers are considered by the French almost as a tragedy of “National Unity”.
However, Marine Le Pen’s party has achieved the greatest success in its history.
In 2017-2022, there were 6 right-wing deputies in the French parliament, and 88 in 2022, now Le Pen’s party can take a place in the National Assembly with 150 deputies.
Thus, while the extreme right has not acquired the leverage to control the parliament, neither has the leftist NFP coalition.
The leftists are very satisfied with the results: why not, they succeeded in depriving “Milli Vahdat” of victory.
“Equality” is, in fact, the first stage of a new struggle for the left and the right.
If Marine Le Pen’s “National Unity” is homogenous, different political forces, from the “reds” to the “greens”, are represented in the “New National Front”.
This is the secret of success of leftists.
Although the average Frenchman knows that Jean-Luc Melachon, the leader of “Unconquered France”, is a staunch Trotskyist, the “New People’s Front” led by him has social democrats, “greens” and others. because he saw that he preferred the leftists.
The balance of power and configurations in French domestic politics will be reshaped according to the results of the parliamentary elections. Nothing will depend on the electorate: winners and losers will engage in political bargaining for positions and seats in factions.
In the National Assembly, which is the lower house of the Parliament, the process of defining the group’s staff, electing the chairmen and deputies, distribution of the commissions among the factions will be started, and there will be a merciless struggle.
At the same time, there will be conflicts and discussions about the composition of the government.
Who will be the prime minister is the main issue. Although the leftists say they are ready to occupy this post, there is no doubt that a search for a neutral figure will be made that will not cause strong protests and irritation in either party.
This figure may come from Macron’s camp.
There will be busy days in the National Assembly. Marine Le Pen’s “National Unity” will not be able to pass the laws she promised in her pre-election speeches, because the left-wing “New People’s Front” will not allow it.
The leftists will also not be able to implement the bills they promised: Le Pen’s party will prevent it at all costs.
And the centrists led by E. Macron will not stop being hit by both sides – from the left and the right.
Thus, a “swamp situation” predicted by local political analysts will appear in the French Parliament.
Illusions regarding the results of the extraordinary parliamentary elections held in France are also inappropriate.
It is unlikely that E. Macron will resign after his expected defeat. To take such a step requires political courage and honor – whether Macron has these qualities is a rhetorical question. Therefore, its harmful influence will not disappear in foreign policy.
There is no doubt that the Armenian community in France will put pressure on the right-wing and left-wing parties and try to take over most of the deputies representing them with money.
This does not mean that it is impossible to rebuild the relations between Baku and Paris, if rational tendencies arise in the foreign policy of Paris. After all, Baku is not the initiator of the current situation.
Another highlight of the election results is the failure of Emmanuel Macron’s plan.
Thus, seeing the success of “National Unity” in the European Parliament elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the parliament and announced early elections.
The goal is not to prevent the victory of “National Unity” in the parliamentary elections in order to prevent the victory of Marine Le Pen in the presidential elections in 2027, and then to involve the right-wing parties in the completely unsuccessful decisions of the government in the domestic and foreign policy and the serious consequences caused by those decisions for the next 3 years. in this way, it is discrediting them in the eyes of the voters.
Because if the right-wingers win the extraordinary parliamentary elections, they will form the government, France will have to come to terms with the “centrist president, right-wing prime minister” configuration, and the right-wingers will have to make decisions that the average citizen will not agree with in all cases.
However, E. Macron’s scenario did not come true, the leftists became the leaders in the second round of the extraordinary parliamentary elections, and the coalition for the formation of the government became an inevitable prospect.
Thus, the rightists will not be responsible for the failures and unpopular decisions of the government in the next three years, and Marine Le Pen will not have a large “negative baggage” in the 2027 presidential elections.
As for the socialists who got 65 mandates in the parliament and the “greens” who got 36 mandates, they too are “Together!” headed by E. Macron. they said that they are far from the intention to cooperate with the coalition.
As a result, the composition and general formation of the new French government will become a very difficult process. Unlike European countries such as Germany, Italy, Spain or the Netherlands, France does not have much experience in building a governing coalition, so power-sharing discussions and negotiations can take a long time.
If the odds are correct, 2027 will be the year of Marine Le Pen. In the next three years, he has a good chance to increase his supporters and achieve his main goal, which is to become the president.