French Legislative Elections 2022: Macron’s Victory and the Future of the Government – Expert Analysis

2024-07-09 05:27:56

he macronista bloc, consisting of three parties, a majority, still at 168 deputies. Until the early elections it had 250 seats. The far right National Group In the end it remained at 143 seats.

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On the outcome of the elections and the future of the Macron Government Trade talk to Rodrigo MurilloPeruvian historian and political scientist based in France.

People celebrate after the results of the second round of legislative elections in France. (EFE/EPA/YOAN VALAT).

/ FROM THE VALAT

—What explains this result? Did the republican front work, was the fear of the majority of the French people about the real right?

That question can be answered by first explaining why Emmanuel Macron He called these elections after seeing the result of the European elections, where the right and the extreme right won with a huge majority. The same night that the results of the European elections were known, all the candidates from the right and the big right They came out to demand the dissolution of the National Assembly so that the country will adopt a new political course, and the president, from his palace that cannot be reached, listens to the people who wanted to change direction. But at the same time as these candidates were demanding new elections, they said ‘Emmanuel Macron will never do it because it is not a democracy, because he is not going to risk his position in the Assembly.’

Macron shut them up by calling elections very early. What purpose? To demonstrate to the electorate that there was nothing behind this real right, in my opinion, but a diagnosis that was exclusively aimed at migration. That is to say, when these candidates who demanded new elections had the opportunity to be interviewed, to participate in debates, to compete in equal positions for the Legislative Assembly, when they changed their position , it was revealed to the public that behind this diagnosis. linked to migration, there is not really an economic proposal capable of giving the French what they have been asking for for a long time: an increase in their purchasing power, lower taxes and, thirdly, just more security and migration control. Finally, after these two turns, The majority of voters have realized that a coherent political plan is not responsible for the country on the extreme right. On that side, Macron’s bet is excellent, because They are stripped, it was shown that they were not preparedthat the people had nothing to offer.

We also need to build on the great mobilization that took place from all political sectors, including the soccer team, the artists, against the political party. Marine Le Pen, which is a party that has long carried a stigma, a party that the majority of the French people are not willing to accept in power. So, when the country heard what all the candidates had to say, the French reaffirmed themselves more on the right, because if you add up the results of the three parties of this political spectrum, you have a clear majority, the only question. there is the thing You don’t want to give the majority to a party at the extreme end of the political spectrum and does not seem to have the professional or academic qualifications to lead the country’s economy and government.

The President of France, Emmanuel Macron, leaves in the car after voting in the second round of the legislative elections. (Photo by MOHAMMED BADRA / AFP).

/ MOHAMMED BADRA

—What does the government look like in France with this new National Assembly with a simple majority on the left?

What has to happen now is that French democracy must become extremely partisan; that is to say, Now only the parties will have to enter into negotiations regarding the formation of a government. Let’s not forget that although it is true that the A New Popular Face won the elections, it must be more than 80 deputies to reach the majority. It is impossible. Now Macron has to contact the leader of the NFP to ask him to form a government, which is not going to happen. There will be great instability, almost no party will be able to approve laws important to the country. It seems that we reached this impasse in the Assembly at the same time, ie. The three biggest issues that concern the French will not be resolved before the 2027 presidential elections.

Jean-Luc Melenchon celebrates after the first results of the second round of the legislative elections in France. (Photo by Sameer Al-Doumy / AFP).

/ SAMEER AL-DOUMY

– Mélenchon asked Macron to appoint a left-wing prime minister, so if he does, will he be blocked?

Of course, because they have to have a clear majority to rule. Now, There could be a left-wing prime minister who appoints ministers from other political forces, ie. so it no longer has a left-wing ministerial government. What is impossible is a left-wing government., because the majority of the French people did not want it that way. Obviously, the head of the NFP Mélenchonwho is also a very controversial man, trying to gain legitimacy to convince the world that he was a winner in the elections, but we must remember that the A New Popular Face It involves several parties, among them the Communist Party, the Ecological Party, the Socialist Party, La Francia Insumisa, but the result does not in any way imply their victory or the implementation of their government plans.

Marine Le Pen takes a photo with her supporters. (EFE/Marine Le Pen Official Account).

— We are three years away from the presidential elections, what are Marine Le Pen’s chances after these results?

In a way, he is accused Macron of after the abolition of the party system i France, because of him, without belonging to either of the two traditional parties, in the style of a caudillo created his own party and won. What Macron has generated over the years is that those parties cannot be recovered. I seriously doubt that Marine Le Pen can be president in 2027face twice already Macronshe did badly in the debates, the French know deeply that she does not have the necessary level in terms of the economy, taxation, foreign policy, it is known that Putin financed her party, They are not going to elect its president, unless we have an openly Chavista candidate like Mélenchon., but that is unlikely to happen. Perhaps what will happen in 2027 is that one of Macron’s former prime ministers, who has no special ties to any of the political spectrums, but a moderate, professional and technical position, could be a surprise. alien. The one you talk to today France I would tell you that the most worrying thing is that no one can predict what will happen. There is no presidential figure in the political parties.

The president of the National Rally (RN) major party, Jordan Bardella, speaks after the first results of the second round of the legislative elections in France. (Photo by Dimitar DILKOFF / AFP).

/ DIMITAR DILKOFF

—In addition to the issue of migration, what other messages from the right end benefited the voters?

We must forget, despite everything, after these two elections, the real right party National Group the number of deputies it has in the Legislative Assembly has increased enormously. It is the most important result in its history. Their diagnosis is simple, they oppose uncontrolled migration, which according to their way of studying the political problem in France It has collapsed public services and is a great burden on the country’s economy, that is the main argument. But we could also point out that the recovery of sovereignty before the European Union is another matter of his point of view; That is, they argue that they will not respect European regulations once they are in power. They sell a kind of sovereign recovery of the country, but also the French, who are not unprepared, who are a very informed population, very political, who are always reading, they know what happened in the United Kingdom with the Brexitwhere a far right party also proposed to recover its borders, gain independence from the European Union, and today its economy is worse than ever.

I am afraid that there is no clear solution to the country’s problem, which is economic, because if you had an economy that grows, that nurtures talent, that needs people, migration would not be a problem; It would be quite the opposite. The problem is that the French economy can no longer grow, people can no longer pay more taxes, and at the same time they want the State to give them more hospitals, schools, a series of things that it is starting to stop providing. Public services are not enough.

—So, in what is left of Macron’s government, does he have a chance to start reversing this situation, or will France in the 2027 elections be under conditions similar to the current ones?

On the one hand, the bet seems to be Macron has turned out well in the sense that the very right that she felt she had the power, that she looked down on him giving him orders, now that she knows she doesn’t have what it takes to rule the country. But at the same time, With the same shot Macron has freed forces from the left and the leftthat’s now feel power and demand a complete change in the economic and political management of the country. I believe that there will be a big attack from both political spectrums on the figure of Macron, both right-wing and left-wing voters, which he will not be able to satisfy because his political ideology is different. A period of political uncertainty awaits us. No major reforms will be allowed, Macron will continue to deal with international politics, but barring some miracle, such as forming a coalition, What awaits the president is to hand over a politically paralyzed country in 2027 and I highly doubt his legacy will be positive.