2024-07-09 12:00:33
Emmanuel Macron’s attempt to prevent the rise of Marine Le Pen and her far-right has turned into a nightmare in early elections, with neither party securing a clear majority. French politics has now entered a dangerous period of uncertainty that could have devastating consequences for the country’s stability and international reputation, writes the Brussels publication Politico.
After unsuccessful European Parliament (EP) elections, Mr Macron called early elections in June to stop Mr Le Pen’s fast-growing far-right National Rally. Still, her party boosted its profile and won 50 more seats than in 2022, while the president’s own liberal coalition retreated.
Macron’s prime minister, Gabriel Attal, has announced he will step down, but it remains unclear who could replace him.
All this, apparently, did not spoil the mood of the French president. In a private meeting with his allies on Sunday evening, Macron was upbeat.
“Our ideas are still alive and well [mes] we didn’t lose voters,” he said, according to one of the people present.
Now France will be hard as hell to rule
The 577 seats in the National Assembly, the lower house of the French legislature, are divided between the left, the center and the far right. No faction is even close to a majority, all 200 MPs short.
According to the official results, the leftist alliance secured 188 seats in the National Assembly. In second place is E. Macron’s centrist alliance, which has 161 seats. Third place went to the far-right National Rally (RN) and its allies, who won by a clear margin in the first round, with 142 seats.
“It’s impossible to govern France if you don’t have 240-250 legislators,” said Sylvain Maillard, a member of parliament from Macron’s Renaissance party. – I was the chairman of the “Renaissance faction”, which had 250 parliamentarians in the coalition, and it was already very difficult.”
The Left Alliance and Macron’s Liberals have agreed to cooperate and vote tactically to prevent Le Pen’s National Rally from winning. However, a deeper coalition between the two factions in governing France seems unlikely.
One of the leftist parties in the alliance, the France Invincible party of far-left veteran Jean-Luc Mélenchon, did not join the coalition, rejecting the possibility of governing with the president’s liberals.
Macron’s Prime Minister G. Attalis also stated that his party would never share power with J. Mélenchon.
On Sunday night, Mr Attalis opened up the possibility of leading an interim government to provide some stability during the Olympics later this month.
Whatever government is formed after this mess, it is unlikely to remain stable for long.
This fall’s budget negotiations will be the first potential point of conflict. France is under pressure to reduce its deficit after missing targets earlier this year.
In general, there are many ideas that leftists, liberals, and far-rights will never agree on. Fiscal policy is almost at the top of the list.
Ms. Le Pen fell but did not leave
After the first round of voting, Le Pen’s National Rally could have won power for the first time in its history, but that dream was dashed on Sunday night.
Macron’s centrists, working with a left-wing alliance, kept the far-right out of the election, to the delight of mainstream pro-Europeans.
The mood at National Rally’s election event was sombre, with activists flocking to Mr Mélenchon and party chairman Jordan Bardella denouncing the “unnatural union of centre-left” as a fraud by the elites.
Despite all the bitterness, the party has dramatically increased its number of legislators in the National Assembly.
“It’s a political upheaval, even if the National Rally doesn’t end up leading the country,” Benjamin Morel, a political scientist at Panthéon-Assas University in Paris, told Politico.
M. Le Pen’s movement is “the big winners of the elections,” said B. Morelis. “Millions of votes turn into a big financial windfall,” he said, referring to the state funding that will follow the results.
This puts Ms Le Pen in a position of influence and a perfect opportunity to use her grievances before the campaign. It is likely that she will seek to become the president of France when Macron is elected in 2027. will resign from the post.
“Before 2027 after the elections, they have a great narrative: they can say that their victory was stolen and that they are the real alternative,” B. Morelis thought.
Macron’s game failed, but it could have been worse
A week ago, Macron appeared to be heading for disaster as his snap election not only failed to stop Ms Le Pen, but also brought her party closer to power.
By Sunday night, his centrist coalition had avoided the worst, remaining as a parliamentary force, albeit a smaller one, while Le Pen’s party failed.
In any case, such consolation cannot hide the reality that the far right is now stronger and the liberals weaker, and that in 2027 the presidential race will be open.
Before the early elections, the president led the largest faction in the parliament. Now he will likely have to work with an opposition politician in the post of prime minister. His authority at home and confidence abroad suffered.
According to Professor Albert Alemanno of the HEC in Paris, Macron did the right thing by calling early elections, even though they ended in failure.
“I see a lot of hidden tension in France, a lot of issues that have not been resolved,” he said. – He opened Pandora’s box, the country is not satisfied with “Macronism” and calls for a new sense of political affiliation.
Mr. Mélenchon will not be liable
If there was one winner, it was Mélenchon, a veteran of the radical left, who won the race by spreading his message. He took to the stage at his party’s rally to demand that Macron appoint a left-wing prime minister and bring his movement to power.
“We are ready for that,” Mr Mélenchon said. The three-time presidential candidate has indicated that he would not mind becoming the prime minister of France himself.
For many politicians, this figure is seen as an instigator because he admires the “strongmen” of Latin America. His temper tantrums and furious attacks on opponents do not go unnoticed.
More recently, critics have accused him of links to anti-Semitism because he downplayed attacks on Jews in France.
Mr Mélenchon is said to be unable even to convince the other parties in the loose alliance of the left to delegate him to power.
The broader coalition of the left, under the banner of the New People’s Front, has already disintegrated. Its leaders sent mixed messages Sunday night about their goals.
Mr Mélenchon said the left would use “our manifesto, nothing but our manifesto”, while MEP Rafael Glucksmann, leader of the smaller Alliance party, seemed more reserved and suggested “talking, debating and changing the political culture”.
What can emerge from this mess?
Since no party won unequivocally, it is possible that the president will opt for a cooling-off period, during which the parties will have time to negotiate a coalition.
Macron could then use a left-wing figure to form a government as the left became the largest faction in parliament.
For example, the Socialist Party has not completely ruled out the possibility of forming a wider coalition. But Mr. Mélenchon’s “France Invincible” is unlikely to agree to water down its manifesto.
Another possible scenario is that Mr. Macron could appoint an interim government, while Mr. Attalis would continue to serve as prime minister. He could even adopt the Italian model and appoint a technocratic team of experts guided by the principle of consensus.
Such an administration would refrain from ambitious plans and focus mainly on maintaining the functioning of the state.
Such a limited administration would rely on a tacit agreement between diametrically opposed parties not to seek to overthrow her, at least to reassure markets and international partners.
However, the interim or expert government “risks a lot of disappointment from a democratic point of view,” political analyst B. Morelis warned. “The French voted en masse, the center lost, and if it ends with G. Attalis remaining in the post of prime minister, it will not be good for French democracy.”
Parenthetical phrase “POLITICO” inf.
2024-07-09 12:00:33