2024-07-10 05:35:19
The report, published by a committee of the US National Academies, was prepared by the US Department of Defense and the Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration, as well as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine.
Over the past several decades, the United States has taken a variety of measures to prevent nuclear terrorism through international cooperation, nuclear non-proliferation treaties, domestic security measures, intelligence efforts and technological advances – but this report warns that vigilance is necessary.
It concludes that, although efforts have been made, they are not sufficient to overcome the emerging threat. The report emphasizes that long-term and adaptive measures are needed to effectively manage the threat of nuclear terrorism.
“The problem of nuclear terrorism remains very relevant. The dangers and risks involved are enormous, but the issue has faded from the American public’s view over the past 15 years, and the skills of the people involved in its governance decisions are aging,” said political science professor Stephen Flynn, who chaired the committee.
The report says that since 9/11 and the Iraq War, there have been many changes in the field of nuclear terrorism.
“After 9/11, the United States had a war on terror, but the threat of terrorism has not been eliminated – terrorism continues to evolve,” Flynn said.
The political science professor also drew attention to the fact that during the Cold War, the Soviet Union and the United States were the world’s two main nuclear powers, and now there are three of them, with China contributing to them.
“It’s difficult to reach arms control agreements in a bilateral relationship,” Flynn said. “That’s almost impossible to do in threes.”
in 2024 there are more than 12,000 nuclear warheads in the world. Russia has about 5,580, the United States about 5,100, China 500, France 290 and the United Kingdom 225. India and Pakistan each have about 170 warheads, Israel 90 and North Korea 50, according to the Federation of American Scientists.
The report states that in the 20th century Russia and the United States have sought to reduce the number of nuclear weapons in the world, but now the demand and availability of nuclear materials is increasing, and the ability to control them is decreasing.
“We now live in a world where most of the programs to manage the supply and control of nuclear weapons are essentially dysfunctional,” Flynn said.
“As tensions rise in the world, there is now, unfortunately, no room for arms reduction,” said Rod Thornton, associate professor of international studies, defense and security at King’s College London.
The report also says the National Academies Committee is concerned about the prosperity of the civilian nuclear sector.
“A lot of new nuclear power plants are being built where there weren’t any before, and it’s not under US regulation and enforcement, but under the leadership of the Chinese and Russians, who can apply fewer safety controls,” Flynn explained. – Most materials that can be used for a “dirty bomb” [mažo galingumo branduoliniam užtaisui] produced have always been difficult to control, and now there are more of them. There is an increasing risk that terrorist groups can obtain these materials.”
However, the report is not just about gloomy predictions. It states that the United States is capable of meeting many of the challenges discussed.
“One of the key points is that the United States has put a lot of effort into managing this risk over the years, and you could say that this was the reason why there was no nuclear incident,” Flynn said. “We have a lot of knowledge about nuclear risk management because we’ve been doing it for decades, but there are new tools and there are many ways to update our response.”
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2024-07-10 05:35:19