Opinion
Waiver of Baerbock
The happiest day in the life of Robert Habeck
Annalena Baerbock, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Robert Habeck, Minister of Economy
© Michael Kappeler / Picture Alliance
The path is clear for the Minister of Economy to run for Chancellor. There are no good arguments against it. Quite the contrary: the Greens should not base their claim to leadership on opinion
Robert Habeck said in April 2021 that the day of the decision will be the most difficult in his political life. On the day of the decision, Annalena Baerbock became the Green Party’s candidate for Chancellor, and Habeck had to forget about it. July 10, 2024 would have to be the happiest day of Robert Habeck’s life. Because now Baerbock has decided not to make a second attempt. And what does the Vice-Chancellor and the Minister of Economic Affairs say? Well, let’s see, wait on the committees, decide together, things like that.
Of course Robert Habeck will be the Green Party’s candidate for Chancellor. If the party abandons its claim to political leadership, it is becoming too small of itself. Then she surrenders to your mood rather than trying to change the mood. There are also very practical reasons for this. If Habeck abstains, Olaf Scholz, Friedrich Merz and possibly Alice Weidel will argue in the televised debates expected in the next federal election campaign, and Habeck would have to contend with Sahra Wagenknecht and Christian Lindner. The Greens should not accept such a competitive disadvantage alone. He can talk, Habeck.
Robert Habeck has to pull the party on his back
A candidate for Chancellor with a poll number of just 13 percent? If only the opinion polls of the moment were decisive as to whether a party nominates a candidate for Chancellor, the SPD would have had to do without it four years ago – and this time too, to be precise. But Olaf Scholz correctly recognized in 2020 that the party that puts its candidate in office is much less in the age of the media focusing on people, but that it is the candidate that his party diligently pulls behind him. Habeck has to do that now.
Scholz managed to do that last time. When the SPD leadership presented him as a chancellor candidate on August 10, 2020, the SPD had 14 percent. In the federal election it was ten percentage points more. At the moment the Greens are a bit behind the values of the SPD back then. But the federal election is still a month away. And in 2025, a return of just over 20 percent may be enough to lead a coalition government.
Robert Habeck, who said he wanted nothing more than to serve Germany as chancellor in 2021, said he is yet to decide whether he still wants that. Except when he announces it. Habeck must decide if he will be the Scholz of 2020 and enter the inevitable soon. Or does he follow Merz and wait for the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony so that the disastrous result for the Greens is not interpreted as the first victory for the newly elected chancellor candidate Habeck.
If he runs for office there, Habeck will not be fighting primarily against Friedrich Merz. It’s about dominance in the red-green camp. So Habeck has the difficult task of challenging a chancellor he led for one legislative term. That means he needs to paint the government’s record in bright colours, but at the same time outline why things would be even better under green leadership. He can learn the best lessons from failed SPD candidates for chancellor such as Frank-Walter Steinmeier or Martin Schulz, who wanted to replace Angela Merkel from major coalitions. However, even in the worst times, Merkel was not as popular – as today – Olaf Scholz.
In 2021, some green sympathizers voted for the SPD. They wanted to ensure that Olaf Scholz would finish ahead of Armin Laschet. A similar constellation could emerge again in 2025. Who has the better chance to prevent Friedrich Merz? Getting on par with Olaf Scholz is the first task that chancellor candidate Robert Habeck has to do.
This article is a takeover from Stern, which, like Capital, is owned by RTL Deutschland. It will be available here on Capital.de for ten days. You can find it there on www.stern.de.
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