2024-07-14 10:02:03
An early second term for President Trump is expected to bring tough immigration policies. Evercore ISI specifically identifies taxes, trade and immigration as key areas of focus for Trump, as immigration has become a top concern for voters and gives Trump a significant advantage.
If Trump is re-elected, it is likely that measures to restrict immigration will be implemented promptly. “Expect the second Trump administration to move quickly to reduce admissions through asylum and temporary protection and begin revoking the right to stay for up to 5 million people,” Evercore ISI analysts report.
However, they predict that more time will be needed to increase the number of exports within the country.
The company notes that a major change is the best legal basis. “Trump’s immigration actions in the future are more likely to withstand legal challenges than in the first term, due to improved planning and a potentially more sympathetic judgment,” analysts note. This suggests that the immigration policies of the second Trump administration may be more durable in the face of legal scrutiny.
While Trump has talked about deporting 15 to 20 million people, Evercore ISI focuses on operational restrictions. “There is no effective strategy to achieve Trump’s goal of deporting 15 to 20 million people,” they note.
Instead, Evercore suggests that more viable results would see a significant but smaller increase in deportations: “Between 500,000 and 1 million per year in a standard case and 2-3 million per year in an extreme case.”
The extreme case could provoke significant opposition, leading to “broad military involvement in immigration enforcement operations.”
A second Trump administration should also scrutinize long-established legal immigration pathways, including those based on family ties and temporary work visas for highly skilled workers (H-1B visas).
Evercore suggests that policies targeting immigrants currently living in the US could lead to an increase in voluntary proceedings, which would increase the number of formal deportation proceedings.
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