2024-07-17 12:00:00
Dn a nation torn by divisions, Republicans and Democrats have agreed on at least one point: American democracy is in danger. By a few millimeters, Donald Trump almost joined the long list of political leaders killed last Saturday: JFK in 1963, Martin Luther King and Robert F. Kennedy in 1968. And as we YouGov surveydespite calls for unity from Trump and calm from Biden, two out of three Americans expect more political violence.
On Tuesday evening, the probable cause of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the 20-year-old who opened fire at the meeting of the former President of the United States, killing one spectator and injuring another, is still unknown. The FBI managed to get access to his smartphone, which has not clearly explained the prepared action: he practiced a long-range target the day before, bought a weapon and a ladder.
At this point, it is unclear whether he is politically motivated. Post high school friends description for New York Times a young loner, ridiculed for his pleasure and reputation school shooter (“School shooter”).
Extreme polarization
Immediately, Republicans blamed Joe Biden for the disaster. “Today is not an isolated incident. One of Biden’s campaign claims that President Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. This rhetoric led to an assassination attempt on President Trump,” accused JD Vance, since he was nominated as a partner by the Republican candidate. The official of the election of Georgia Mike Collins went further, demanding that Joe Biden, “the one who gave the order”, be accused of “incitement to murder”. He pointed out exactly the word bullseyeThe center of the target, which Joe Biden regrets that he used, justified in an interview with NBC that he said in a graphic way.
“It’s a false statement,” he retorts Carolyn Gallaher, a professional researcher who specializes in remote armies at the American University of Washington. “Biden and his friends don’t threaten people. They say that their opponents are afraid of democracy, which is, one could argue, true. “It refers to the intention of Donald Trump to take revenge and arrest his political enemies or to release the assassins of January 6, whom he described as “political prisoners”, or even his insult after the attack with the vehicle of Nancy Pelosi.
James Campbellprofessor of political science at the University of Buffalo, author of books Polarized: Making Sense of a Divided America (“Polarized. Understanding a Divided America”), writes his analytical colleague. “To say that Trump is a threat to democracy is a misnomer and it’s clearly fueling hatred and, as we can see with the assassination, extreme violence. » This comment, he stressed, is not only used by Joe Biden, but also “by many Democratic officials and by the media”, and it causes direct divisions.
Political violence on the rise
Reuters news agency sifted statistics from the last 50 years, and the verdict is clear: opposition and political violence in the United States is “at the worst level” since the 1970s, with 213 acts of violence since January 6, 2021, who died 18. In most cases, these solitary acts are carried out by attackers who identify with the right of political perception. The American left is mobilizing as a group, as if to protest racial inequalities after the death of George Floyd, with demonstrations that are sometimes consumed by violence, in Minneapolis, Portland and Seattle. After the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, the fever spread to the campuses of dozens of universities.
From now on, between one in three Americans etc One in five, according to various studies, believe that political violence is sometimes justified, a number that is always increasing. According to the June barometer by Robert Pape, at the University of Chicago, 7% of Americans believe that the power has the right to restore President Donald Trump. There are 10% who think the same, but to prevent him from becoming President again. Americans: almost half of these people own a firearm. It is enough to explain that almost one in two Americans fear a second civil war – as Alex Garland thinks in his film Civil war.
According to Robert Pape, the main factor in this ultra-polarization is the acceleration of the self-identification of the American people, with the white majority going from 82 to 62% of the population in thirty years, a change which has increased the rise of the right to. -part of populism. By choosing JD Vance, catapulted into politics with his book The Hillbilly Elegy (“The Elegy of the Hogs”), Donald Trump is betting on mobilizing his base, mainly the uneducated white working class and rural America, to return to the White House.
Carolyn Gallaher and James Campbell agree on one point: they have no hope for a general election in November, even if the vote is close. “I don’t see any reason for the temperature to drop,” Judge Campbell said. Unless the Democrats take a “beat” in the elections and the Republican Party “washes itself away from the most important elements” to make a change to the industry like British Labor. Gallaher fears “that the next three months will be very volatile”. “I expect that most of the violence will come from the right, unless armed groups start attacking people on the left. In this case, you can see antifa groups emerging. »
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