How did Burundi, once one of the poorest countries on the planet, join the very closed circle of economies with the highest GDP? Here is how the discovery of a gigantic deposit of cassiterite (and coltan) in Kirundo province twenty-six years ago led to a « miracle » economic.
July 2050. The building that serves as the headquarters for the powerful OBM (Burundian Office of Mines) does not go unnoticed in the capital of Kirundo province. Built after the discovery of a huge deposit of cassiterite in this northern province of Burundi, it is located on the heights of Kanyinya, on one of the lands that once belonged to the Catholic clergy. With Soviet architecture and a rococo feel, it is here, in this eighteen-story building, that the Burundian economy beats. With a staff of around a thousand, the OBM is one of the most highly rated mining organizations in the world. It is the Burundian Aramco or Total.
Every morning, the OBM executives, handpicked, go to work in buses. Known for being disciplined and efficient, they are among the best trained and best paid in the country. With a salary of around 20,000 US dollars per month, they represent the reputation of the Burundian administration. Thanks to measures and programs of the Burundian state, the country has maintained a double-digit annual growth rate for the past ten years, with a record of 20% in 2047.
No one would have predicted that Burundi, once riddled with corruption and a weak administration, mocked by its neighbors, would become the best-managed economy in all of Africa. And yet…
Did you say ” good governance ” ?
The discovery of this huge deposit in Kirundo, on Murehe hill, was greeted with a touch of skepticism. How was such a deposit going to lift the country, undermined at the time by recurring shortages of basic necessities, out of extreme poverty (according to the IMF, the GDP was around 245 US dollars in 2023)? That was without counting on the genius of the Burundian authorities. In the space of two decades of “responsible and hard-working government”, Burundi in 2050 is a country with one of the lowest corruption rates in the world.
Behind this success, another African country, Botswana, has been a model. A major diamond producer in the world for many years, this southern African country has put the expertise of its workforce at the service of Burundi, thanks in particular to bilateral agreements between the two countries.
But this would not have been enough without the implementation of instruments that have revolutionized the entire economic landscape of the country. There was the PAEEJ (Economic Empowerment and Youth Employment Program), the PAE (Economic Self-Sufficiency Program) created in 2028, the PNI (National Investment Program) set up in 2030, as well as colossal investments in growth areas such as energy, the extension of the road network and agricultural transformation. With the discovery of the Kirundo deposit, Vision 2040-2060 was reviewed and reworked to allow for a fair sharing of the dividends of the Murehe “geological scandal”.
Good management of income from mineral exports has made Burundians among the ten happiest people in the world alongside the Scandinavians, the Swiss and the Qataris. And for good reason! Today, Burundi has one of the most efficient health and education systems. As for him, the Burundian farmer has nothing to envy those of the major Western economies. The country has achieved self-sufficiency in basic necessities whereas thirty years ago, it had difficulty importing even fuel.
Stroke of genius or stroke of fate?
Despite all these spectacular advances, Burundians remain a reserved and introverted people. Protectionism has taken hold and the country rarely participates in regional integration initiatives. It is as if Burundians have scores to settle with their neighbors who, for a long time, associated the country with failure and incompetence. Even today, some in the sub-region explain Burundi’s development as a stroke of fate.
While the discovery of the huge cassiterite and coltan deposit coincided with a strong global demand for these minerals used in the manufacture of electric car batteries, quantum computers and other electronic gadgets (an increase of 200% since 2025), many Burundians are offended that little credit is given to the enlightened leadership of the authorities who have been able to combat corruption, economic malfeasance and social inequalities while placing themselves above the ethnic divisions that have so saddened the country in the past.
PS: this article is an uchronia, that is to say a reconstruction fictive of the story relating facts as they could occur.
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2024-07-23 09:29:46