2024-07-24 07:49:10
In most of the developed world the Immigrants they are now… unwelcome. According to figures presented by the Economist, more than 50% of Americans favor “deporting all immigrants living in the US illegally,” up from 33% in 2016. Only 10% of Australians favor more immigration, in a sharp drop compared to a while ago. Even Britain’s centre-left new prime minister, Keir Starmer, he wants to make his country “less dependent on the inflow of immigrants, by better training British workers”.
THE Australia’s Anthony Albanese, also centre-leftrecently said that the immigration framework in his country “doesn’t work” and wants to cut net migration in half. In the US, Trump is vowing that if re-elected he will push through the biggest deportation program of all time – and that doesn’t even seem to bother Latin American voters. In many European countries, governments are making similar promises.
And they don’t stop at words. THE Australia, Britain and Canada they have targeted universities that offer courses that allow entry into the country to people whose real intention is to work. This year Canada hopes to reduce the number of study permits by a third. Other countries make it difficult for immigrants to bring family with them.
Because everyone is changing tactics
Last month, President Joe Biden announced measures including the asylum ban to those who illegally cross the southern borders of the country. In France, President Emmanuel Macron wants to speed up deportations. Germany is implementing similar plans. His plans Trump entail the removal of perhaps 7.5 million people. What will this crackdown mean for economies across the rich world?
The change in approach follows a period of high levels of immigration.
The last three years 15 million people have immigrated to rich countries, in the largest immigration wave in modern history. Last year, more than 3 million people immigrated to America, 1.3 million went to Canada and about 700,000 found themselves in Britain. The arrivals are from all over, including hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians fleeing war and also millions from India and sub-Saharan Africa.
Flows are decreasing
Now there are signs that the boom may be coming to an end. THE net immigration to Canada has almost halved from its recent peak, while in New Zealand it is declining sharply. The rich world has fewer job vacancies than before, giving would-be migrants less incentive to move, while the flood of refugees from Ukraine has gradually slowed.
New anti-immigration measures are also starting to play a role. In the EU, the number of third-country nationals returned to their country of origin, following a deportation order, has increased by 50% in the last two years.
In the first quarter of 2024 the “enforced deportations” from Britain increased by 50% year-on-year. Illegal crossings at America’s southern border recently fell to a three-year low.
Some anti-immigration measures, especially large-scale deportations, could prove extremely damaging to economies. When Canada increased deportations during the Depression, it came at a great fiscal cost and clogged ports. In 1972 the Ugandan government deported thousands of people of Asian descent, accusing them of profiteering. “There are virtually no African businessmen to take up the trade,” said a confidential CIA memo in 1972, which also noted that it was impossible to get a haircut in Kampala as all the barbershops were closed.
Those close to Trump argue that the “Operation Wetback” – Dwight Eisenhower’s policy in the 1950s that deported thousands of undocumented Mexicans – shows that mass deportations can work without negative consequences.
There is a benefit, but it is temporary
It is true that the period was one of strong economic growth and inflation remained low. However, the comparison is misleading, explains Econmist. This is because during the 1950s, legal immigration of Mexicans to America rose sharply, rather than declining.
“There is no doubt that Trump’s proposal would cause economic chaos, as entire industries would be forced to find new staff,” the British magazine’s analysis points out. Warwick McKibbin, of the Peterson Institute, estimates that in the unlikely event that Trump did go ahead with deporting 7.5 million people, US GDP would lose 12% cumulatively over three years.
A reduction in immigration, on the other hand, would benefit GDP per capita – the yardstick by which economists typically measure living standards. As immigration increased in 2022 and 2023, GDP per capita in Britain fell and in Germany it plunged. An increase in wages, a decrease in inflation would be the positive, but short-term effects of reducing immigration.
In the long run this logic costs dearly
Most importantly, the newcomers they often work in unattractive, poorly paid but nonetheless vital positions in industries including construction and healthcare. From 2019 to 2023 the number of foreign-born people in America’s construction workforce rose sharply, even as the number of native-born builders declined.
In Norway the number of foreign workers employed in health care has increased by 20% since the Covid-19 pandemic. The number of doctors working in Ireland but trained elsewhere is up by 28%. During the same period, the number of Chinese in the British National Health System doubledwhile the number of Kenyans tripled.
Over time, rich countries, which see their populations aging, will need more young workers willing to work.
That’s because few politicians are talking about measures like drastically raising retirement limits or how to make health care much more efficient. Although cracking down on new immigration arrivals may buy politicians time for a while, if this logic prevails it will have nightmarish results in the long run.