2024-07-27 12:14:00
It is almost commonplace: when referring to the need to change the vicious circle of the economy to a virtuous one, the magic lever seems to be investment. From the “rain” announced by the former president Mauricio Macri to the voluntarism of the current Government which considers that, once the inflationary fire was extinguished, the market would work to start the wheel of consumption and production. During the administration of Alberto Fernández Argentina received FDI of US$25,527 million, almost 26% less than the meager harvest of the Cambiemos government.
Bone scan. The country has a history of being a serial debt defaulter which has made it a regular passenger in the arbitration courts of the ICSID, the space where differences between investors and governments due to breaches of contracts are settled, precisely. Foreign direct investment (FDI) does not show that the Latin American region is one of the regions that has grown the least in the last decade and, as far as Argentina is concerned, one of the countries that has been stagnation. Analysis by the consultant Group Romanoshowed that the apparent growth of investment in the country last year is hidden by the forced debt of subsidiaries with their parent companies and importers with their suppliers, with a growth of 57% in 2023 alone.
For the lawyer Agustín Siboldi, partner specialist in Energy and Natural Resources Studio O’Farrell, The macroeconomic solutions are not going to come soon, it will take longer, so the Incentive System for Large Investments (RIGI, voted by the law of the Bases) seeks to promote those solutions for large investments, which are necessary with them previously, suitable for using natural resources and for carrying out public works. “This system provides legal security through instruments (exchange, customs, fiscal and regulatory stability) because it is based on a constitutional clause: what the bill itself says, the jurisprudence of the Court and what is called the ‘Progress Clause’. which allows progress on provincial and municipal legislation, to provide legal security in those jurisdictions,” he explains. In his opinion, energy is a sector that shows that the actors have succeeded, but they are waiting for signs to invest again. “The big investors who have come into oil and gas and mining have come upstream, but to take a leap and attract capital, there is a need for more security in terms of fiscal aspects, customs and, above all, in terms of exchange features,” warning.
“With the RIGI it is enough, I clearly believe that the sequence of events that is happening, the first event is stabilization, because without the stabilization of Argentina with its history of inflation will not seduce anyone, in addition the macroeconomic stability will not one of inflation but also exchange rate, “It allows you to theoretically calculate and predictability”says the counselor Marcelo Elizondoeither. In addition, he claims that progress should be made with the implementation, instrumentation and enforcement of the entire deregulation program that is broadly entitled in DNU 70 or the law of the Foundations, but that later regulation is needed. “A lot has already been done, but a lot is missing, but I believe there is also a second requirement and the third is not only to get rid of the stocks but to have one free exchange rate without a markup, which includes of course. no longer already exists the country tax. , the “RIGI” would not be on one sideIt ends.
Daniel the Fourth, general secretary of the Argentine Confederation of Wood and Related Industries (FAIMA), some differences regarding the importance of the system to promote investment for the sector. “In our case, there is no initiative that exceeds the established floor of US$200 million because it is composed of SMEs, but it could be used in another link in the chain, as the most primary one in the forestry or pulp industry cellulose,” he says. The clarification is relevant because even though one could think of investments between US$10 and US$20 million in the logging industry, being at the bottom of this productive pyramid they hope that the fine print of the approved law can be used for such initiatives bring to land. such as pasta plants, for example, related to payouts that can reach up to US$3,000 million and that could double the forest area in production.
Against. The Economist Juan Soldano, with extensive experience in the Brazilian economy, he draws a parallel to the tax competition between states that has generated the promotion regimes, which is heavily exploited by the automotive industry. “Until the change this year where a generalized VAT took over the local component – the ISMS – all states granted tax exemptions or deferrals. In addition, the municipalities also contributed with land or other facilities.”, he points out. With the reform, the VAT is now unified and the competition between investment sites must find a new factor of inequality, which would be applied again with the first “big fish” who seek a fight between local governments to gain an additional advantage. .
Examples have already been shown of the possibility that municipalities can even leverage the RIGI. General Pueyrredón (headquartered in the city of Mar del Plata where Guillermo Montenegro is currently mayor) has already warned that he will provide facilities to companies that come under the regime and are still waiting for the “mini RIGI” to be in his reality to generate more. origin. Last year, the city was the protagonist of the controversy over the Norwegian company’s likely investment in oil exploitation. Equalizer pertaining to Shell e YPF in an area of 300 square kilometers in front of that town. Although the first survey was negative, they will continue to explore, if a discovery is made, they can start production.
The main offer can now be seen between the provinces of Conradh na Gaeilge Buenos Aires y Black river. As part of the project to convert the country into a net importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), YPF partnered with Malaysia’s Petronas to establish a dedicated shipping port (not compatible with general port facilities). With the current instrument of the RIGI, which the Argentinian oil company has long requested, YPF requested, with deadlines and conditions, that each province be presented with its offer to be eligible, something unusual or at least not communicated in this way. Buenos Aires had a port with facilities already in place (Bahía Blanca) but with a burden: it decided not to obey the law, but instead enacted a provincial regime to try to compensate for this lack. Río Negro’s advantage was quickly getting its legislature to vote to join the RIGI. To try to event, the controller Alberto Weretilneck it would also provide complementary works and ultimately the natural characteristics Punta Coloradothe chosen place. The initial start is US$3 billion, but there is already talk of a huge chain of investments (which would increase the initial expenditure by 10). Voluntary or reality, the truth is that this is the first step.
The project is not the last one that will involve its complexity A dead cow on which they are deposited, together with the initiatives located in the North West provinces, but which have a strong political connection. The binding of Axle Killeath If a regime was not started upon the voting of deputies of its color against it, it could have a great cost in terms of material investments, precisely in the most dynamic sector: energy. Accustomed to dealing with governments of very different orientations and in places even in the presence of open conflicts, businessmen in the demand sector, as well as legal stability, which no provincial government can guarantee: free access to the exchange market be able to repatriate profits. and access to unhindered availability of inputs. A lack of confidence that is not personal but a system that needs too much good writing to level the playing field.
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by Tristán Rodríguez Loredo
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