I believe we are about to enter a new kind of cold war now – a lukewarm war. In this type of war, the powers will fight each other in any way that does not involve a declared declaration of war. The three main ways in which the powers will fight will be cyber, psychological warfare and robots
I was invited to be interviewed this morning on the radio about the future of the war following (and during) the invasion of Ukraine. After the interview I thought the conversation might also interest readers on the blog and Facebook, so I put the main ideas in writing.
We will start, of course, with a question that everyone wants an answer to: Will a comprehensive war (World War III) break out in the wake of the current crisis?
As I try to emphasize in any forward-looking article, it is impossible to predict the future with certainty.
But one can certainly provide some guesses about him.
My guess is that a world war as we know it, using all possible means of defeating the enemy, is not going to take place following the invasion of Ukraine or at all.
The reason for this determination is that there are European countries – Britain and France – with their own nuclear weapons. Others, such as Germany, Belgium and Italy, hold nuclear weapons in their territories and can load them on their own bombers. And of course, Russia itself also has a fair number of nuclear missiles.
Many of our contemporaries are not particularly interested in the nuclear weapons in the possession of states. Most of us were born in a world where the Cold War was already over, or we had already reached the point of numbness about the dangers of using nuclear weapons. This particular sword of Democles had been hanging over our heads for so long that we stopped thinking about it. For limited evidence, I did an analysis of the online conversation patterns about nuclear weapons. I used SparkBeyond’s artificial intelligence engine to do this, and we’ve seen a significant drop in this particular discourse in the last decade.
There is no need to explain that this is a big mistake on the part of the public. We forget how shocking nuclear weapons are and how great their potential is for the Gog and Magog war: for the extensive destruction of cities and the creation of uninhabitable areas and the cultivation of food. They can harm innocent populations over time, due to the nuclear fallout floating in the wind and being swept away by the water. We forget the global panic that arose when the power of the nuclear bomb was first demonstrated. There was such a great panic that there were pacifists who stated out loud that in order to avoid the complete destruction of humanity, the United States should immediately take over the whole world. Nuclear weapons.
Since then we have calmed down a bit, which is a big mistake. But anyone who studies military history is well acquainted with that period. Generals still remember, and advisers to history-masters remember, and accordingly – even prime ministers and presidents will not be complacent about wars that can easily degenerate into launching nuclear weapons. They will do anything to avoid this risk.
At least that’s what I believe and hope. If the national leaders themselves forget how dangerous these weapons are and are willing to go to World War III, then only God can help us, and I am an atheist at all. But I believe Putin is not playing checkers but chess, and he is considerate enough to avoid entering into an all-out war. My guess is that he will conquer Ukraine and stop there. Western countries will not let it continue to spread to Poland and other Eastern European countries. If he tries to do so, they will arrest him on a one-off basis without reaching an all-out war. There is no point in a war in which there can be no winners, and in which the loser can destroy the other side at the push of a button.
What will happen is a war of a different kind, which I call a “lukewarm war.”
We will remember for a moment the Cold War. It was a quiet war between the powers, with spies trying to obtain information about each other and very targeted killings. The powers also fought each other indirectly through attempts to sway neutral states in their favor. The fighting has always been under the radar, and no country has dared to declare war on another country with nuclear weapons.
I believe we are about to enter now into a new kind of cold war, but hotter than it was before. Let’s call it – a lukewarm war. In this type of war, the powers will fight each other in any way that does not involve a declared declaration of war.
The three main ways in which the powers will fight will be cyber, psychological warfare and robots.
The cyber war has long since begun. The Russians fund talented hacker groups, which break into systems and steal information from all over the world. They spread, for example, the NotPetya damage that was supposed to paralyze Ukraine – but also hurt many Western companies. They managed to paralyze through cyber attacks power plants in Ukraine as early as a few years ago, and also managed to infiltrate critical infrastructure in the United States. The Chinese are enjoying similar success, and even North Korea holds an entire army of cybercriminals who rake in billions of dollars for the administration from cyber hacks and stealing digital currencies like bitcoin. It should certainly not be mentioned that Israel also has impressive cyber capabilities, according to foreign sources.
Through cyber warfare, countries can harm each other without it being possible to trace with certainty the source of the attack, and therefore there will also be no reason to declare war on the physical world.
To tell the truth, this type of war scares me almost as much as the use of nuclear weapons, because it implies that the fax era Americana – the peace that the United States has imposed on the world since 1945 – is coming to an end. These attacks are inherently reminiscent of state-funded pirate attacks on international trade routes – a practice that was accepted for thousands of years, and eventually harmed everyone. I hope that such a silent cyber war does not signal a return to this pattern of action, which will harm international cooperation and the movement of goods from country to country, and accordingly – also the ability of the world’s technological progress.
The second type of lukewarm combat is psychological warfare. Here the Russians are real artists: we have already seen in the US that they are capable of mutilating different sides of each other, with a minimal investment of resources. But let us not be naive: the United States is capable of doing exactly the same thing, and if we go to such a lukewarm war News and group extremism We will have to find ways to deal with the rise of false news and the relentless attempts of sponsored trolls to exaggerate any opinion.
The third type of lukewarm combat, and one that did not exist in the past, is the use of autonomous robots. Realistic science fiction writer Daniel Suarez has written a book called Kill Decision in which he describes the use of autonomous skimmers as a weapon that cannot be assigned to a particular party for sure. They have no identifying marks, and are able to act in bands to destroy targets. It is, in fact, a war power for all intents and purposes, but one whose operators and creators can deny their involvement in it. Or even, in extreme cases, can claim that the autonomous weapon is out of control.
I guess in the lukewarm war we see an abundance of autonomous robots of all kinds, especially in arenas farther from settlements. For example, skimmers were found in the sky that would destroy particularly threatening targets, such as uranium refineries. Or autonomous submarines and boats in the oceans that could attack merchant ships, simply to shock the state of the world where a particular power feels deprived.
First of all, a real world war will happen, in my opinion, only if we somehow manage to paralyze nuclear weapons. One possible way – though very unlikely – is for some power to develop sophisticated cyber weapons that can prevent the launch of nuclear missiles despite all the defenses that exist precisely against such actions. It is also possible that a power that possesses sophisticated intelligence capabilities and believes that it has identified all the facilities and nuclear weapons of another country, will be able to destroy them in one quick blow and go to war. The chances of these two possibilities materializing are slim, in a world where the superpowers are developing their technologies with similar speed.
Still, if a third world war really breaks out without the possibility of using nuclear weapons, then I guess such a war will be basically the same as it has been so far: air forces neutralizing enemies and ground forces occupying territories.
The small differences are really interesting. Cyber forces, for example, will be able to paralyze economies and factories deep in enemy territory. In this respect, they are similar to the air force. The air forces themselves will make massive use of skimmer swarms, which can neutralize and destroy targets on the battlefield and rear by attacking them from all directions. And the ground forces will be assisted by autonomous robots for carrying equipment and even for actual combat in the field.
Generals will develop close-knit strategies and tactics with artificial intelligence, understanding that these can win anyone over – and therefore need to be incorporated into decision-making processes. Together with the artificial intelligence they will have to determine what the price of human life is. This will not be an easy task.
Last but not least: biological warfare, of the kind we are beginning to realize today, how far-reaching its meanings can be. It’s enough to think what would have happened if the rapidly spreading omicron had SARS-CoV-1 virulence, to understand how genetic engineering could completely change the face of war.
But say again: if we get to a real war between powers, it will be a big surprise for me. There will be tension, Ukraine will probably be occupied, but once everyone understands that Putin is most interested in it – they will put in front of him a stable front that he will not be able to get through without going into a full-scale war. And I’m willing to bet it will not happen.
My friend Gilad Greenbaum contributed two points to the thought, which inject some optimism into thinking about the post-Ukraine future.
First, Putin may achieve in this war exactly what he wanted to avoid: a stronger NATO, with a truly united European Union against the Russian threat.
A month ago, this idea would have seemed like a dream, following the corona that made all the conflicts in the union worse. Things did not seem to be improving, and the highlight when it came to Ukraine came when the Germans sent her helmets as military ‘aid’. No planes, no firearms, not even spears. Only helmets.
But then a strange thing happened: as soon as Putin invaded Ukraine, the Germans were among the first to announce severe sanctions, which would make it very difficult for Russia to sell gas to Europe. The other European countries, at least for now, do not oppose these sanctions and speak out strongly against Putin. Paradoxically, it is possible that Putin himself contributed to the strengthening of the European Union.
Another positive thought is that sanctions on Russia may force European and other countries to strive for energy independence. They will no longer be able to rely on the oil coming from Russia, and will therefore move on to relying on renewable and cleaner energies. These include solar and wind energy, as well as the use of advanced generation nuclear reactors with safe technology. No country would want to be dependent on another country – especially when it knows it could go to war with its energy supplier in the coming years.
The EU and the UK alone have just over 500 million citizens. If everyone shifts to renewable energies, we can slow down the next climate change upon us for the worse.
good luck to us!
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