2024-08-03 16:30:42
Author: Elchin Alioglu
Source: Trend
At the Summit of the European Political Community held in Granada, Spain, German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz decided to become a “mediator”. He thought that he would play the role of a “moderating party” together with the Chairman of the Political Council of the European Union, Charles Michel, and that he would see Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the same table after the persuasions and entreaties of French President Emmanuel Macron.
It was not received, because the “triple meeting” prepared according to Macron’s script did not take place in Granada, official Baku refused this tragedy, and in the end, the Macron-Michel-Scholtz-Pashinyan quartet had to be content with accepting a “joint statement”.
The Granada fiasco was just the next stage in Olaf Scholtz’s foreign policy failures. Sholtz continues his failures in Spain before the joke, but he does not give up his desire to intervene in regional geopolitics in the South Caucasus and acquire important elements of influence on the processes.
Whereas…
Germany is rapidly losing its leadership status in the European Union (EU). Olaf Scholtz’s government’s inability to solve problems in domestic policy and complete dilettanteism in foreign policy have caused serious headaches within the EU as well as NATO.
It seems obvious that Olaf Scholtz, who cannot reach the level of the former “Bundeskansers” Angela Merkel, is not a political “giant” but a “dwarf”.
10 years ago, when the weakened EU tumbled from one crisis to another, Europe had only one political leader. Germany and the country’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, were the leaders of other European countries and European politicians who listened carefully and watched.
Southern European countries are struggling with financial and banking crises, Eastern European countries are trying to solve energy carrier supply problems, and Central European countries wanted to reduce aid. All of them were right, but none of them dared to oppose Angela Merkel and oppose Germany’s interests.
Now in Brussels, a completely different discussion is taking place: they are talking about the weakening of Germany, the cowardice and incompetence of Chancellor Olaf Scholtz. In Germany itself, conflicts in the three-party coalition led by Olaf Scholtz later spread like metastases to the entire European Union, creating obstacles in the activities of Brussels.
In the structure of the ruling coalition in Berlin, which consists of the Free Democratic Party of Germany (Freie Demokratische Partei, FDP), the Social Democratic Party of Germany (Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands, SPD) and the “Greens” Party (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen), the conflicts between the parties have not subsided and turned into hostility. . Old alliances are changing in appearance and substance, and countries that once declared themselves friendly to Germany now prefer to bypass Berlin.
Unlike Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholtz does not have the talent to reach agreements with patience and skill.
At the EU summit, he speaks exclusively from Germany’s positions and then is surprised that others do not want to listen to him.
Olaf Scholtz talks about his country’s interests in the South Caucasus, but even the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, who has made a name for himself by his arrogance and half-heartedness, listens to the Chancellor of Germany mockingly and ridicules him.
Germany’s dream of leadership in Europe does not look like a realistic plan in the near future. Quarrels in the ruling coalition, decision problems in the courts, plus the federal structure of the country – all this makes decision-making in Berlin long and frustrating.
Olaf Scholtz was also hasty when he announced the “Zeitenwende”, saying that radical changes had begun in Germany’s foreign policy after the start of military operations in Ukraine. Germany began to change, no word.
Official Berlin has begun to renew and modernize its armed forces, and has taken real steps to reduce its dependence on Russia for supplies of natural gas, crude oil and hard coal. Berlin emphasized that it has started changes in the energy policy, and soon after, it intensified the negotiations with Azerbaijan regarding natural gas supply.
It’s been a while since Olaf Scholtz has strangely begun to join French President Emmanuel Macron’s crazy, voluntarist, and somewhat crazy foreign policy initiatives. Especially after the decision to hold early parliamentary elections in France, E. Macron actually dealt a heavy blow to the political authority of Olaf Scholtz.
Staying true to his role and consciousness, Macron considers Olaf Scholz “weak” and Germany as “smaller than France”. However, despite all its problems, Germany is still superior to all the countries of the European Union in terms of weight and influence. Without the official support of Berlin, a number of issues on the agenda of the European Union cannot be regulated in any case.
But Olaf Scholtz is in a hurry in important matters. For example, he declared the growth of the European Union due to the accession of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia as a “geopolitical priority for Europe”. However, in order to expand, the EU must first carry out serious reforms, review the veto rights of the member countries, and renew the policy of privileges and subsidies. The formation of the capital markets union also requires very serious efforts and resources.
At a time when the US-China conflict is intensifying, and Washington and Paris are engaged in aggressive geopolitical activities in the post-Soviet space, especially in the South Caucasus, the level at which the internal and foreign policy of the European Union can respond to the current challenges is also a topic of discussion.
Olaf Scholtz now relies on his “faithful ally”, Ursula von der Leyen, the most influential president of the European Commission in recent decades.
Although the European People’s Party, of which Ursula von der Leyen is one of the leaders, remains in opposition in her homeland, Germany, the head of the European Commission does not forget Germany’s interests and problems.
Frau Ursula, who was elected to her post for the second time for a period of 5 years, now has great political influence and capital, so she will not spare her support addressed to Berlin.
Time is against Olaf Scholz and Germany.
Since the parties that make up the ruling coalition in Germany suffered a heavy blow in the elections to the European Parliament, they are preparing for the regional elections to be held in September, and are trying to restore their reputation and ratings.
Moreover, the attention of the parties in the country is focused on the general elections to be held in the fall of 2025. In such conditions, of course, the parties in the ruling coalition in Germany will try to prioritize domestic policy problems over foreign policy problems.
Geopolitical risks are increasing, the economy in European Union countries is entering a new period of stagnation – the behavior of German parties can create serious risks.
If Olaf Scholtz doesn’t make serious changes, his situation will get worse.
“Interesting moments” will be experienced in diplomacy conducted by official Berlin, especially since Foreign Minister Annalena Berbok has already started an open competition.
Berbok, who attended NATO’s jubilee summit held in Washington in July, said that he will not run for the post of chancellor in the Bundestag elections in the country.
If we remember the political realities and traditions in Germany, this means that Berbock intends to become the chairman of his party “Union 90/Greens” (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen). German Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck intends to fight for that post.
As for Berlin’s geopolitical strategy in the South Caucasus, and especially its diplomacy regarding Azerbaijan, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs led by Berbok has clearly taken a pro-Atlantic position. Rather, as Annalena Berbock herself says, “feminist diplomacy” has been chosen. The essence of the idea is that Berbok, unlike his predecessors, who were members of the German Social Democratic and German Free Democratic parties, is going to open confrontation with people who do not appreciate his positions and do not share his point of view, as well as with the states.
It is no coincidence that A. Berbok rejected the ideas of Otto von Bismarck, the first chancellor of Germany, the founder of German foreign policy, as soon as he was appointed to the post of Foreign Minister. The name of the “Bismarck Room” in the building of the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs was changed to the “German Unity Room”.
The reason for Berbock’s antipathy towards Bismarck is also known: the basis of Bismarck’s diplomacy was the tactic of establishing normal relations with the states in the regions of Berlin’s interests.
Berlin’s apathy in the matter of Germany’s policy in a number of regions, including the South Caucasus, and especially in pushing Armenia to take necessary steps to ensure peace and stability in the region, is entirely the “service” of Annalena Berbock.
Misunderstandings between Olaf Scholtz and Annalena Berbok are growing, and a clear example of this is the weakness of Berlin’s policy in our region.
The course of events shows that Annalena Berbok will leave her post soon.
But will the move change Berlin’s half-hearted policy in the South Caucasus?
Too early to answer…