2024-08-05 18:30:40
Despite the battlefield difficulties Ukraine faces, some experts believe it can retake Crimea given enough weapons, troops and time. This would involve crossing the Perekop Isthmus, which connects Crimea to mainland Ukraine, or the Sivash.
Business Insider writes about this.
In order to enter Crimea, the Ukrainian Armed Forces would first have to breach the defenses and cross the Surovikin Line, a defensive system in the south and east. Serhiy Sumlenny, founder of the German think tank European Resilience Initiative Center, says the question now is whether Ukraine can amass enough artillery and air power to breach the defenses and create a stable foothold for further advance.
If Ukrainian troops reach Crimea, Sumlenny believes, it will be necessary to cut off Russian troops on the peninsula. To do this, it is necessary to destroy the Crimean Bridge and the last ferry crossing on the Sea of Azov.
The expert also noted that Crimea is historically vulnerable to attacks: it was worth launching a massive raid, as the peninsula ended up in the hands of the enemy. The expert cited the example of the Red Army’s offensive in 1921, as well as the massive offensive of the Axis countries in 1941, which began with the siege of Sevastopol. The landscape and natural features of the peninsula do not allow for clear defensive maneuvers or counteroffensives.
Therefore, if the Ukrainians overcome the Perekop Isthmus and enter the Crimean steppe, the Russians will only have a choice: either go into a state of siege, gradually surrendering city after city and ultimately being destroyed, or immediately retreat from the peninsula.
But such rosy predictions are also met with resistance. Mark Temnitsky, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, believes that a full-scale invasion to retake Crimea is “extremely unlikely” because of the huge losses that Ukrainian troops would suffer. There is also concern that Russia might resort to nuclear weapons if Crimea were threatened.
It is worth noting that Ukrainian intelligence also understands that the first step in returning Crimea is the destruction of the Crimean Bridge, which is the main supply base for Russia. Therefore, the head of the GUR, Kirill Budanov, expressed the opinion that the bridge could be destroyed by the end of the year.