NEWS ANALYSIS: In 2022, Vladimir Putin planned to take Kyiv within a few days. Now, meetings with top generals focus on how Russia will regain its territory from Ukrainian forces.ap-feature-arrow
Published: 08.08.2024 16:17 | Updated: 08.08.2024 20:23
Summary
- Ukrainian forces have crossed the border and taken Russian territory.
The summary was created using artificial intelligence (AI) and verified by Aftenposten’s journalists.
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The President of Russia appears very displeased in the video clip from the meeting with Valeriy Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff of the armed forces of the country.
– The operation will be completed by defeating the enemy and securing the state’s borders, says Gerasimov.
He talks about how the military will manage to reclaim areas of Russian territory that are now under Ukrainian control.
On Tuesday, the Russians were taken by surprise. Suddenly, Ukrainian forces crossed the border into Kursk region.
This is not the first time soldiers linked to Ukraine have crossed the border. However, this incident stands out for at least two reasons:
- The scope appears to be much larger than previous operations. Some sources report that Ukrainian forces have advanced 15–25 kilometers into Russia and taken 360 square kilometers360 square kilometersThis is an area approximately equivalent to the municipality of Asker or the surface area of Lake Mjøsa.. They are said to have breached two Russian defense lines and taken control of 11 villages.
- Previous attacks across the border have been carried out by volunteer armed groups that were not directly subordinate to the Ukrainian military. Now several analysts point out that it is likely that conventional Ukrainian forces have crossed the border.
The incident is referred to in various ways: a raid, an operation, an attack. But it is also a literal invasioninvasionThe Bokmål Dictionary defines this as “the intrusion of military forces into foreign territory.”, albeit on a rather limited scale.
The White House has stated that they have contacted Ukrainian authorities to get answers to a central question:
What do they hope to achieve with this?
Kursk Invasion: Meaningless or Genius?
Analysts following the war have different views on what Ukraine is doing now.
Pasi Paroinen, who is affiliated with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, believes the attack makes no operational or strategic sense.
He tells The New York Times that Ukraine is wasting soldiers and resources needed for the defense fight against Russia inside Ukraine.
But others believe Ukraine has a clear plan. Military analysts Kostyantyn Mashovets and Mykhaylo Zjyrokhov are among them.
Zjyrokhov points out that in recent days there have been fewer attacks on Ukrainian targets along the Donetsk front with the feared guided bombsguided bombsHeavy bombs equipped with wings. Released from aircraft and can reach targets 30-50 kilometers away..
– This suggests that the planes that have been used are now elsewhere in Russia, he tells BBC.
There are strong indications that the attack is an attempt to force Russia to redeploy troops currently used inside Ukraine.
In recent weeks, Russia has made somewhat significant advances in parts of the battlefield.
Even though the losses are enormous – likely hundreds of Russian men are killed every single day – Russia has an advantage in terms of the number of soldiers and military striking power. This allows them to slowly but surely grind their way westward in Ukraine and Europe.
From Border Soldiers to Invasion Army
Russia has occupied just under 20 percent of Ukraine for over two years. In these areas, the Russians have had ample time to establish both defensive lines and as functional logistics as possible.
But warfare in Ukraine is extremely resource-intensive. The Putin regime has had to deprioritize security on its own territory to be able to attack at the front and secure occupied areas.
The National Guard, which is responsible for securing Russia’s borders, has sent tens of thousands of soldiers to the war.
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Russian Vulnerability Along Ukrainian Border
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created a precarious situation for the Kremlin. Ukrainian forces have made significant advances along the border, putting significant pressure on Russian forces. This has led to outrage in Russia, with calls for retaliation and criticism of the military leadership.
Russian Military Strain
The Ukrainian counteroffensive has forced Russia to divert resources from other areas to secure its border. This leaves them weakened along other fronts and reduces their ability to conduct offensive operations. This advantage for Ukraine could potentially lead to further territorial gains.
Potential Prisoner Exchange
Reports suggest that Ukrainian forces have captured Russian soldiers during the operation. This presents an opportunity for a potential prisoner exchange, which could be a significant diplomatic victory for Ukraine.
Russian Fury and Retaliation
The Russian government has responded with outrage and threats of retaliation. President Putin and former Prime Minister Medvedev have called for a military response, hinting at further attacks. This rhetoric raises concerns about the possibility of escalation.
Ukrainian Silence
Ukrainian authorities have remained largely silent regarding the situation along the border. This strategic silence allows them to gather intelligence and plan their next moves without alerting their opponents.
But EU Commission spokesperson Peter Stano has said that Ukraine is fully entitled to defend itself “by attacking the aggressor on its territory.”
The leader of the defense committee in Germany’s national assembly, Marcus Faber, says it is completely legitimate for Ukraine to use Western weapons in the operation.
For Putin, the incident is a new defeat. One of the main tasks of a head of state is to ensure sovereignty over their territorial integrity.
In February 2022, Putin believed that the invasion of Ukraine would be over in a few days.
Now he is in a situation where the attempt to secure another country has led to him losing control over parts of his own.