Typhoon Ampil Approaches Japan: Potential Impact During Obon Holidays

2024/08/13 05:42 Weather News

On August 13 (Tuesday) at 3:00 AM, a developing tropical depression south of Japan has become Typhoon No. 7 (Ampil).

After this, it is expected to strengthen while moving north and may approach eastern Japan, including the Kanto region, during the second half of the Obon holiday. Attention to its movement is necessary.

▼ Typhoon No. 7 August 13 (Tuesday) at 3:00 AM
　Center Position　　　South of Japan
　Size Category　　　／／
　Intensity Category　　　／／
　Movement　　　　　North-Northeast, slowly
　Central Pressure　　　998 hPa
　Maximum Wind Speed　　　18 m/s (near center)
　Maximum Gust Speed　25 m/s
» Latest Typhoon Information

Potential impacts on Kanto and eastern Japan during the latter half of Obon

Typhoon No. 7 is expected to continue strengthening while moving northeast from south of Japan and is forecasted to make its closest approach to the Ogasawara Islands tomorrow, August 14 (Wednesday) evening to night. After that, it is expected to change direction northward and may become stronger around August 16 (Friday), which is the latter half of the Obon period, and may approach the Kanto region and eastern Japan with stormy weather until August 17 (Saturday). It may continue moving north and affect northern Japan as well.

The forecast circle is wide, and there is significant uncertainty about the possible paths and speeds, but if it takes a westerly route, there is a concern for stronger rain and winds in Kanto and other areas, necessitating caution for heavy rain, strong winds, and high waves. Additionally, there may be renewed impacts from Typhoon No. 5 in the Tohoku region, which is experiencing record rainfall.

When the typhoon approaches, there is a possibility of impacts on transportation, especially in eastern and northern Japan. This coincides with the latter half of the Obon holiday, which includes return trips from hometowns and travel. Please check the latest typhoon and traffic information regularly and plan accordingly considering the weather.
» Radar Wind Mode

Reference: Numerical simulation results of the path calculated by meteorological agencies around the world

Each thin line in this figure represents the results of numerical simulations calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. These are obtained from the process of ensemble forecasting (members) and are displayed to illustrate the considerable range of possible paths.

Comparing these members, while there is a tendency to head north toward east of Japan, it can be observed that there is variability between forecasts diverging northeast and those heading toward Honshu. If a westerly path occurs, there is a possibility of wind and rain impacts around the three-day weekend, so attention to forecast changes is necessary. Errors are expected to diminish over the days, so please be cautious of future updates.

Probability of entering the typhoon’s storm area

The probability of entering the typhoon’s storm area in counties with a probability of 5% or more within five days is as follows. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
　Nemuro District　　　　6 %
　Kushiro District　　　　7 %
　Tokachi District　　　　6 %
　Hidaka District　　　　7 %
　Aomori Prefecture　　　　14 %
　Iwate Prefecture　　　　33 %
　Miyagi Prefecture　　　　41 %
　Akita Prefecture　　　　25 %
　Yamagata Prefecture　　　　33 %
　Fukushima Prefecture　　　　52 %
　Ibaraki Prefecture　　　　61 %
　Tochigi Prefecture　　　　48 %
　Gunma Prefecture　　　　44 %
　Saitama Prefecture　　　　51 %
　Chiba Prefecture　　　　65 %
　Tokyo Metropolis　　　　　68 %
　Kanagawa Prefecture　　　　52 %
　Niigata Prefecture　　　　28 %
　Toyama Prefecture　　　　13 %
　Ishikawa Prefecture　　　　6 %
　Fukui Prefecture　　　　6 %
　Yamanashi Prefecture　　　　41 %
　Nagano Prefecture　　　　30 %
　Gifu Prefecture　　　　　17 %
　Shizuoka Prefecture　　　47 %
　Aichi Prefecture　　　　19 %
　三重県　　　　　11 %
　Shiga Prefecture　　　　6 %
　Nara Prefecture　　　　5 %

This is the third typhoon occurrence this month

Average number of typhoons occurrence per year

Following Typhoon No. 6, which occurred on August 11, this is the third typhoon occurrence this month.

Looking at the average number of typhoons, the average number of typhoons occurring in August is 5.7, making it the time of year with the highest number of typhoons. This year as well, multiple typhoons may occur south of Japan. As we head into the full-fledged typhoon season in autumn, please prepare for typhoon measures and heavy rain precautions.
» Radar Satellite Cloud Image Mode

Typhoon Name

The names of typhoons are pre-prepared with 140 names proposed by member nations of the international organization “Typhoon Committee” and assigned in the order of occurrence.

The name of Typhoon No. 7, “Ampil,” is a name proposed by Cambodia, derived from the name of a fruit in the legume family.
» Radar Typhoon Mode

Reference materials, etc.