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The policy decision monetary of the Bank of Mexico to cut the interest rate by 25 points to place it at 10.75% was surprising, analysts who expected a pause considered.
“This is a wise decision (to lower the interest rate) in light of the current outlook. macroeconomicbut inconsistent in the way in which the members of Banxico justify the cut,” he estimated. Ivan Ariasdirector of financial analysis at Citibanamex.
After the monetary policy decision of the Banxico of raising rates from 11 to 10.75% by cutting 25 basis points, in a vote divided between the five members (3 to 2), “we consider that going forward, the environment is expected to inflationary allow us to discuss adjustments to the reference rate,” he said.
“In our opinion, the above and the ‘dove’ tone of the statement imply that the Board would opt to make continuous cuts of 25 points for the rest of the year, to close at 10%.”
In this context, “given our estimates of economic slowdown, a decrease in general inflation from August, and in view of the start of the Fed’s rate cut cycle (we estimate a first cut of 50 points base for September).
“For 2025, we anticipate continued additional cuts of 25 points for each meeting, so the monetary policy rate would close at a still restrictive level of 8% next year.”
For its part, Alejandro Saldana, Director of economic analysis at Bx+ explained that although inflation has accelerated, we estimate that lower economic growth will help it to ease in the future; its outlook faces various risks, which is why we are raising our forecast for the end of the year to 4.90%.
“That is why, despite the surprise drop in the benchmark announced today (yesterday), we reiterate our forecast for the rate at 10.50 at the end of the year,” he said.
Victor Ceja, Chief Economist of Valmex, He projected that the risks are that underlying inflation will reverse its downward trajectory, in which case the possibility of a pause in the monetary stance opens up.
They were in favor of the cut Victoria Rodriguez, Galia Borja and Omar Mejia while Irene Espinosa and Jonathan Heath voted in favor of maintaining the rate at 11%.
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2024-08-15 10:03:48