2024-08-20 07:01:39
According to a survey in Saxony, the BSW can hope for a double-digit result. The AfD is losing, including in Thuringia, but remains strong.
In the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia on September 1, the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) alliance is set to win, while the AfD has suffered significant losses in both federal states, according to a recent Forsa survey commissioned by “Stern” and RTL.
In Saxony, the BSW could jump to 13 percent of the vote straight away, while the AfD falls from 34 percent in January to 30 percent now. The situation is similar in Thuringia, where the BSW would reach 18 percent and the AfD would also slip from 36 percent to 30 percent.
In Saxony, the CDU would remain the strongest party with 33 percent, followed by the AfD with 30 percent. The SPD and the Greens would each make it into the state parliament with 6 percent, while the Left would no longer be represented with 3 percent. The BSW would take third place with 13 percent. This could just about be enough for a continuation of the black-green-red coalition in Saxony – but only if the error tolerance of plus/minus three percentage points is ignored.
In Thuringia, the situation is more complex. Here, the AfD would be the strongest force with 30 percent, followed by the CDU with 21 percent and the BSW with 18 percent. The Left, which currently has Bodo Ramelow as Prime Minister, only received 13 percent in the survey. The SPD would make it into the state parliament with 7 percent, while the Greens would miss this goal with 4 percent.
While the state governments in both states are rated rather poorly, the incumbent state premiers are more popular than their parties. However, the AfD with Jörg Urban in Saxony and Björn Höcke in Thuringia has significantly less support in the direct election questions than the BSW with Sabine Zimmermann and Katja Wolf. In Thuringia, Bodo Ramelow (Left Party) would get 42 percent. 16 percent would choose Björn Höcke (AfD), 10 percent for Mario Voigt (CDU) and 6 percent for Katja Wolf (BSW).
However, according to Forsa boss Manfred Güllner, the outcome of the elections in Saxony and Thuringia remains unclear, as interest in the state elections is high and the actual election results could differ from the current mood.
The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of Stern” and RTL Deutschland between August 7 and 14, 2024. The survey is based on 1,041 respondents in Saxony and 1,011 respondents in Thuringia. The statistical error tolerance is +/- 3 percentage points.