Typhoon Shanshan Gains Strength, Poised to Impact Japan This Weekend

2024/08/22 06:45 Weather News

As of 6:00 AM on August 22 (Thursday), Typhoon No. 10 (Shanshan) is moving northwest over the Mariana Islands.

▼ Typhoon No. 10 August 22 (Thu) 6:00
　Center position　　　Mariana Islands
　Size category　　　／／
　Strength category　　　／／
　Movement　　　　　Northwest 10 km/h
　Central pressure　　　1002 hPa
　Maximum wind speed　　　18 m/s (near the center)
　Maximum instantaneous wind speed　25 m/s

This weekend, it is expected to move northward near the Ogasawara Islands accompanied by a storm zone, and there is a high possibility of it affecting the Honshu area next week. Please pay attention to the future trajectory and typhoon information.
» Latest typhoon information

Increasing Probability of Impact on Japan

Looking at the expected strength, Typhoon No. 10 is likely to develop into a storm zone by Saturday (24th) to Sunday (25th), and there is a possibility it will become a “strong” typhoon in five days.

According to trajectory predictions, Typhoon No. 10 is expected to pass through the waters near Ogasawara around Sunday (25th), and by Tuesday (27th), it is likely to move northward south of Honshu, potentially approaching Honshu and Shikoku.

Furthermore, although it will progress northwestward up to about 30 degrees north latitude, there is a possibility it will change its course to the north-northeast thereafter.
» Radar Wind Mode (Wind Flow)

Reference: Numerical simulation results of trajectories calculated by meteorological agencies worldwide.

Each of the thin lines in this figure represents the results of numerical simulations calculated by meteorological agencies from around the world. These results are from a method called ensemble forecasting, where intentional errors are introduced into initial values to examine forecast reliability and other factors.

Comparing these, there is a general tendency for the typhoon to move northward south of Honshu, indicating a significantly high possibility of impacting Japan. Considering the forecast period, while the variations are relatively small, potential paths range from those passing to the west of Kinki to those passing near Kanto, making it difficult to narrow down the specific areas of impact.

Even slight differences in trajectory can result in significant differences in the affected areas and the degree of impact, so close attention to forecast changes is necessary. Errors are expected to decrease as time passes, so please pay attention to future information.

Probability of Entering the Typhoon’s Storm Zone

The following is the list of prefectures where the probability of entering the typhoon’s storm zone is 3% or higher by five days ahead (Japan Meteorological Agency):
　Amami region　　　2 %
　Okinawa main island region　13 %
　Miyako Island region　　54 %
　Yaeyama region　　72 %

Sixth Typhoon of the Month

Average Number of Typhoons

This is the third day since the emergence of Typhoon No. 9 on August 19 (Monday). It is the sixth typhoon to emerge this month.

Looking at the average number of typhoons, August experiences an average of 5.7 typhoons, marking it as the time of year with the greatest number of typhoons. Since six typhoons have already formed this year, it appears to be at or above the average pace.

As summer transitions into autumn, the number of typhoons approaching Honshu is expected to increase, signaling the onset of the full-fledged typhoon season. Make sure to prepare for typhoon and heavy rain measures.
» Radar Satellite Cloud Image Mode

Name of the Typhoon

The names of typhoons are pre-prepared names suggested by member countries of the international body “Typhoon Committee,” and there are 140 names available which are assigned in the order they occur.

The name for Typhoon No. 10, “Shanshan (珊珊),” was proposed by Hong Kong, and it originates from a girl’s name.
» Radar Typhoon Mode

Reference Materials