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The dollar closed higher this Tuesday, with a record of $4,187.9 at the end of trading, following a holiday in the United States (due to Labor Day). The currency opened the market today with a value of $4,165.
During the session, the currency reached a high of $4,204.66 and fell to a low of $4,150, a point it hit just a few minutes after trading opened.
The Representative Market Rate (TRM) set by the Financial Superintendence is at $4,160.31 for this Tuesday, September 3.
It is worth noting that last week, although the dollar started stable, with a closing price on Monday of $4,027, the currency continued to rise for the rest of the days, reaching $4,179 by last Friday.
“This behavior was influenced by data in the United States that reflected a more robust GDP growth and inflation in line with expectations, but still showing a gradual slowdown,” explains Sergio Olarte, chief economist at Scotiabank Colpatria.
This week, factors that could be influencing the dollar’s exchange rate include labor data from the United States, which will publish August figures on Friday, according to Alejandro Guerrero, analyst at Credicorp Capital.
Additionally, according to Guerrero, this Tuesday will also see the release of economic activity figures in the U.S., particularly related to manufacturing. In both cases, results are expected to be “in the contracting territory,” stated the analyst.
It is important to highlight that the July data created noise as it was below analyst expectations, which has reignited the debate regarding the strength of that country’s economy and its potential to approach recession next year.
Projections for the dollar price
▶️ In the latest Monthly Survey of Economic Analysts’ Expectations from the Bank of the Republic (July), most project that the exchange rate will close the year between $4,000 and $4,100.
▶️ The analysts who participated in the Financial Opinion Survey from Fedesarrollo (July, latest available) believe the exchange rate will be around $4,050, a slight decrease from the previous month’s forecast ($4,080).
▶️ The latest projections from BBVA Research (June) indicate that internal and external monetary policy will be the main determinant of the exchange rate behavior. “The peso will depreciate in the second half of the year, stabilizing around $4,200 per dollar during 2025.”
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