With 11,180 points in the ranking after triumphing at the US Open, a mark surpassed in history only by five other champions, the Italian has over 4,000 points ahead of Zverev, in second. The German has hopes only if he wins consistently and Jannik falters in the early rounds.
With the victory at the US Open, Jannik Sinner has sealed, at least for 2024, the number one position in the world ranking. Although nothing is official yet, the ranking on Monday, September 9, certifies that the fresh winner of Flushing Meadows has 11,180 points, with a huge lead over the number 2 in the ranking, who is now Alexander Zverev: the German has 7,075 points, 4,105 less than Sinner. This margin leaves Jannik more than calm to realize his dream of lifting the trophy in Turin during the Finals (to which he is obviously well-qualified), which is awarded to the player who finishes at the top of the ranking at the end of the year.
In history
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To understand the significance of the achievement and the score obtained by Sinner, it is enough to think that in history only five other players have managed to surpass the 11,000 points mark: Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, and Pete Sampras. However, as stated, the official confirmation is still pending. When will it arrive? October could be the right month. Only twice in history, since the new ranking system was introduced (in 2009), has the number 1 position been assigned at the end of the year in September: Novak Djokovic managed it in 2015 (after winning the final against Federer at the US Open), and Rafael Nadal in 2010, also after winning the New York slam for the first time.
The calculations
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Starting September 30, Sinner will have to defend 500 points in Beijing, 90 points in the Round of 16 in Shanghai, 500 points from his victory in Vienna, 90 points in the Round of 16 in Bercy, and 1,000 points from the Finals in Turin, totaling 2,180 points, while Zverev has to defend “only” 1,010 points since the US Open, which is less than half of Jannik’s. Despite the comeback being mathematically possible, Zverev would need to perform miracles, while Sinner would need a disaster. Essentially, Sascha would have to win everything while Jannik would essentially need to lose early in each tournament. There are still two Masters 1000 (Shanghai and Paris Bercy), four 500 series but in pairs (Tokyo and Beijing are in the same week as Vienna and Basel), and the Finals (which give 1,500 points if all matches are won), along with a few 250 events.
The competition
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Jannik will play, according to what has been announced so far, in Beijing, Shanghai, Paris, and Turin. The number three, Alcaraz, finished the US Open with a total of 6,690 points, having lost 670 compared to 2023 (when he reached the semifinals), while the number four is Novak Djokovic, with 5,560 points, down 1,900 compared to 2023, when he won the title. The Belgrade superstar has not been this low in the ranking since January 2023. Alcaraz has 680 points to defend before the end of the year, while Djokovic has 2,300. Thus, after some quick calculations, it is more than plausible that Sinner could be officially crowned number 1 in the world in October, immediately after Beijing or the 1000 in Shanghai, Bercy in the worst-case scenario.