2024-09-13 06:20:35
In the last year, China has had a new minister of defense and foreign affairs or a general of the nuclear forces. The original ones, mostly chosen directly by President Xi Jinping, disappeared from public view without explanation, just as their replacements appeared on the scene. The “Stalin-like purges” according to retired Taiwanese admiral Lee Hsi-min indicate that the Chinese president does not trust his subordinates.
Following the exchange of politicians or generals, the media also started talking about purges in the local communist party. “It means that Xi Jinping has no confidence in his subordinate commanders and that the internal power struggles have not ended. They may have been removed because they did not support him as much as he would have imagined,” says former Taiwanese navy admiral Lee Hsi-min.
As an analyst at the DSET research center, he visited the Czech Republic at the invitation of the European Values think tank and gave an interview to the newspaper Aktuálně.cz on that occasion. He has been dealing with the Chinese threat for a long time.
The analyst emphasizes that no one knows exactly what is happening in Beijing’s innermost leadership. “It’s going on just like the purges under Stalin,” he assesses, referring to the Soviet dictator.
The support Xi sought from his party colleagues may have been related to consolidating power. Beijing’s highest-ranking man is in power for a third term, despite the party’s decision to impose a maximum of two after its experience with dictator Mao Zedong. In 2018, however, the Chinese parliament approved an amendment to the constitution, which abolished the restriction on holding the post of president for a maximum of ten years. In Beijing, the second-highest-ranking man, who traditionally replaces the president after the end of his term, was also replaced.
“In such a political environment, you have to be strong. Not because of your ambitions, but because of your personal safety. He drove a lot of people away, that’s certainly why a lot of people hate him. But in such an environment, no one will say that because it goes against their personal safety. But when once the president steps down, he won’t have any power, including the protection he’s getting now,” the admiral says.
Retired Taiwanese Admiral Lee Hsi-min. | Photo: Jana Václavíková
“The reality will be harsher for him. That’s why he doesn’t want to step down and insists on staying in power. It’s reasonable to think he’ll be in power until he dies,” Lee is convinced.
You are unopposed like Putin
Until then, Xi might want to fulfill one of his goals – to make the neighboring island of Taiwan with an independent democratic government his territory. The Asian power is willing to achieve the step, which Beijing defends with a historical claim, even with military force.
However, this decision might not pay off for Beijing – for example, due to possible sanctions from the West, which could threaten the country facing economic problems even more. But if Si gets rid of people with a different opinion, he could end up like Russian President Vladimir Putin, the admiral thinks. “If Xi had a strong opponent at home, it would be something completely different. But no one can compete with him. No one will tell him ‘don’t do it’, just like they didn’t tell Putin,” emphasizes Lee.
At the same time, according to the admiral, the entire country should lead the debate on a possible attack on Taiwan. “It shouldn’t be up to a single man, but China is in such a situation,” he fears.
He adds that it is not certain how stable Xi’s position is. If he is afraid of his power, according to the admiral, he could doubt and postpone the decision to unify with Taiwan. However, he does not rule out that the Chinese president could, on the contrary, launch a military attack.
The Asian equivalent of NATO
Taiwan is not Beijing’s only target, Japan and the Philippines are also at the forefront of China’s interest. Both countries face an increasing number of Chinese aircraft and ships approaching or even crossing their maritime borders. According to Lee, closer mutual cooperation could be the solution.
“The best thing for Taiwan would be the creation of an alliance similar to NATO, which would help ensure long-term peace in the region, including the United States,” believes the Taiwanese admiral. However, according to him, it is not about anything like that at the moment.
He explains that due to history, South Korea cannot cooperate with Japan, and the Philippines, in turn, is afraid to develop a close relationship with Taiwan in order not to upset China. “That’s why it’s so hard to cooperate and defend against a Chinese invasion,” he concludes.
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