2024-09-18 13:10:43
While the number of asylum applications is sinking dramatically this year – along with the number of economic migrants – the discussion around migration is building to fever pitch.
In response to large gains by the far-right AfD in both the EU and eastern state elections, the government immediately sprung into action, extending of argument checks along all nine of Germany’s foreign borders.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) expressed his intention to carry out “large-scale departures” as the main parties met for a migration conference that quickly fell into controversy.
At the same time, immigrant rhetoric was increasing, prompting Deutschlandfunk to draw comparisons with the early 1990swhen Germany saw a sharp attack on refugees and foreigners who had been living in the country for many years.
All this feels a far cry from Germany, which has been open to skilled foreign workers for the past year, and has fought to overturn a century-old ban on two countries – which finally happened in June.
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But it has left some wondering if the tide could be turned, and if hard-line rights like two countries could be set to go out the window. This is where things currently stand.
Threats from the CDU
The biggest threat to the two-country law is the debate from the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Union (CSU), long-time opponents of the bill.
Shortly after the new citizenship law came into force in June, immigration spokesman Alexander Throm told DPA that the parties decided to withdraw it.
“The CDU and the CSU will change that which has not been successful,” he said. “Dual citizenship must be exclusive and limited to countries that share our values.”
CDU politician Alexander Throm speaks in a debate in the German Bundestag. Photo: alliance art/dpa | Christoph Soeder
But is this all fanfare from a team that has campaigned hard against two countries for years on end? In the opinion of many political experts, the answer is yes.
“The CDU’s announcement that they will end the dual-state mandate is a desperate attempt to react to the growth of the AfD,” Nils Diederich, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin, told The Local.
However, it is unlikely that the party has the numbers in parliament to do so – even if they win the next election.
That is because the German system tends to rely on coalition governments, and every one of the CDU and CSU’s viable partners – the Greens, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Free Democrats (FDP) – support two countries.
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This was supported by Greens immigration expert Filiz Polat, who told Commune: “CDU/CSU is completely isolated with its announcement that it will repeal the citizenship law in the event of a change of government.”
Also, the CDU and CSU are very unlikely to have the numbers in the Bundesrat to change the law. The Senate is comprised of federal state governments that all need to agree in order to vote in favor of the law.
Apart from Bavaria, where the CSU runs alongside the Free Voters, or Freier Wähler, party, every single state coalition of the CDU is part of some combination of the Greens, SPD and FDP. As the parties that work on and beyond this law, it is unlikely to agree to change it.
What about the far-right AfD?
Many foreigners in Germany are understandably worried about the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which seems to be going from strength to strength recently.
In the Bundestag debates on the new citizenship law, the AfD spoke against the changes – a position it reiterated in the party. Basic planor key policy.
“The AfD rejects ‘double citizenship’, i.e. the acquisition of German citizenship with the simultaneous advancement or acquisition of another citizenship,” the party wrote. “Although this does not rule out important issues that are well-founded.”
In addition, they say, the requirements for localization must increase significantly.
A car drives past a billboard displaying an election campaign poster for Alternative for Germany (AfD) with the lettering “Sunrise – class in Germany” in Altenburg, eastern Germany on August 20th. Photo by JENS SCHLUETER / AFP
With them recent successes in the eastern stateshowever, the far-right is still a long way from taking power in Germany at the national level (or even at the state level).
That is mainly because all the major parties – including the CDU – are known as a The firewallor a firewall, in place, that prevents them from collaborating with the AfD.
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Therefore, even if the parties CDU and CSU technically have the numbers to enter a coalition with the AfD after next year’s federal elections, the party’s constitution expressly prevents them from doing so.
Any informal agreement – such as an agreement to abolish the two-country law, for example – would also be politically toxic, and would almost certainly split the party.
Where does the government stand?
Currently, the so-called traffic light coalition of SPD, Green and FDP – named after the parties’ three colors – is engaged in something of a balancing act.
While the rhetoric surrounding migration has taken on a much more combative tone, the coalition has established a clear dividing line between legal and skilled migration and controlled, irregular migration.
In a fiery speech in the Bundestag on September 11th, Scholz emphasized Germany’s desperate need for immigration to deal with current job shortages.
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“There is no country in the world with less labor force that has economic growth,” he said. “That’s the reality we face.”
The president also noted that German law mandates the protection of people who face danger and persecution. In other words: asylum seekers.
“Opening up to the world is a must,” he explained. “But cosmopolitanism does not mean that whoever wants to come. We must be able to choose who comes to Germany.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) gives an impassioned speech during the general debate on the budget on September 11th, 2024. Photo: alliance picture/dpa | Kay Nietfeld
According to political scientist Diederich, this goes to the heart of the matter at hand.
“The mandate of multiple citizenships has little to do with unregulated immigration,” he told The Local. “It is given to people who have been living legally in Germany for many years and who have successfully contributed to German society.”
On the other hand, Diederich said, the fear of “alienation” through indifference, injustice and unwanted immigration has been fueled for political reasons.
“It’s not just the AfD that does this,” he added.
Currently, the government seems to be laser-focused on dividing their immigration policies – like the recent skilled worker law and citizenship reform – from the need to stop irregular migration.
For foreigners here legally, this means that pathways to German citizenship – and indeed, dual citizenship – are set to remain in place for the foreseeable future.
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