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According to the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE), the IGAE would have grown 0.1% monthly in July and 0.3% in August, with seasonally adjusted figures, according to the Inegi.
The variation in July would be the result of the growth of the Industrial production of 0.2% (already known), and a fall of -0.1% in services.
For its part, the August expansion would come from increases of 0.3% in IP and 0.4% in tertiary activities. For both months, annual growth would be 1.1%.
If these results materialize, they would indicate that the slowdown would have continued at least until July, with a slight recovery in August, which could imply a growth of GDP in 3Q24 slightly higher than that exhibited during the first half of the year. However, we continue to estimate that this year, the economic activity will grow 1.3%.
Citibanamex projected that for July, the IGAE, which is reported next week, is expected to have a monthly growth of 0.1% (1% annually) with seasonally adjusted figures, after the zero monthly variation in June.
“These results will imply an annual increase of 2.7% in the original series, after the -0.6% drop recorded in June,” the bank said.
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2024-09-25 11:57:29