2024-09-25 08:21:49
A recent study showed the impact of climate change on the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as Storm Boris which hit several countries.
There are 24 dead and dozens missing after Storm Boris passed through Central Europe, which began on September 14. The European Union has already promised to release 10 billion euros in aid to the affected countries (Poland, Romania, Hungary, Austria, Czech Republic and Germany). Damaged buildings, collapsed bridges or broken dams, the consequences are very serious. Even if the weather phenomenon is very natural, a quick study by WWA (World Weather Research) with the participation of 24 researchers, points to the effect of climate change on its magnitude and intensity.
Storm Boris is driven by a cold water, a pocket of cold air of polar origin that is more than 5,000 m high, and meets warm, cold air on the Mediterranean Sea, then follows its path, above the Black Sea. The depression formed was blocked by a strong anticyclone over Russia, which led to a large accumulation of precipitation, which then fell across central Europe.
What the study, which focused on the four strongest days of Storm Boris, from September 12 to 15, revealed is that global warming has increased the temperature of precipitation, by increasing the amount of water vapor that is transported by evaporation cold, in contact with the warm waters of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, which currently reach record temperatures. This event is “create the perfect storm» describes Dr Joyce Kimutain, a researcher at the Grantham Institute (London) who participated in the study. For researchers, this is the heaviest precipitation ever to fall in central Europe. Global warming affects the whole world, but its effects are particularly strong in Europe. According to 2024 data from Copernicus, global average temperatures increased by 1.3°C compared to the beginning of the industrial era, while in Europe the increase reached 2.3°C.
Read againStorm Boris: Hungary fears, in total, the “flood of the decade”
Except that at the level of the Mediterranean Sea, the increase is even more significant. Davide Faranda, director of research at the CNRS in climate sciences spoke “an increase of 5°C to 7°C in the Mediterranean Sea, giving surface temperatures close to 30°C before cooling down. This deepened the sadness of Storm Boris. The study’s figures are alarming: climate change would have made the recent heavy rains twice as likely and up to 7% more intense according to the WWA study. A French study of the same type carried out in part by the CNRS, ClimaMeter, announces an increase in intensity of 20%. WWA compared the impact of Storm Boris on a 1.3°C global warming using the best climate models. Significant damage would have been observed in any case but with low intensity and amount of rain. “The impact of climate change and global warming is shown» warned Davide Faranda.
Special adaptation efforts
«Until oil, gas and coal are replaced by renewable energy, storms like Boris will cause even heavier rain, causing floods that will cripple the economy.“, warned Joyce Kimutain. Gas tunnels resulting from fossil energy production heat the atmosphere above the continents, but also the seas and oceans.
«With the idea that a day will reach a temperature of +2 ° C, we can say that these events will continue to be more and more frequent”said Friederike Otto, researcher at the Grantham Institute in London and one of the authors of the recent WWA study. “The following regions affected may not be exactly the same, but we know that Central Europe will be particularly affected by this type of event.“. So what to do? Davide Faranda emphasizes the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but remembers that it will also be necessary to make major changes to face future disasters. “We are thinking with different actors, not only among scientists, but also with local actors. We must adjust transportation, travel, agriculture… the scientist explained.
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