[]
Thanks to the dynamism of primary sectorthe country’s economic activity rebounded during July by registering the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) grew 0.6% at a monthly rate.
In August 2024 and at an annual rate, the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) anticipated an increase of 1.1% of the IGAE, according to the Inegi.
He growth is explained by the significant recovery of primary activities (11.6%), as well as the moderate advances in the industrial production (0.2% monthly) and services (0.4% monthly).
An economic analysis of Rodolfo Ostolaza of Citibanamexpointed out that despite the growth in July, the average activity level between November 2023 and July 2024 is below that recorded last September-October, which illustrates the slowdown already seen since the end of 2023.
Ostolaza estimated that considering that external demand remains practically stagnant, the gradual slowdown in job creation, the projected fall in public spending, and the high level of uncertainty (which would affect investment decisions), “we maintain our growth projection of the GDP by 2024 in 1.3%, although today’s result biases the balance of risks upwards.
He added that activity in July surprised on the upside, mainly due to a extraordinary expansion of agricultural production, which has shown significant volatility in recent months.
He stressed that “the services were slightly above estimates. In recent months the PI has been driven by construction, while the manufacturing industry is already showing a clear decreasing trend.
Services present a modest growth trend, well below that observed between 2022 and until the third quarter of 2023. In this sense, we estimate that in the rest of the year the economic growth weakens”.
He anticipated that external demand will remain weak as we project that the expansion of the GDP American loses traction and that country’s manufacturing remains relatively stagnant.
In this regard, Alejandro Saldaña, director of financial analysis at Bx+ bank, projected that at the moment there are no catalysts that would allow a significant acceleration in economic growth at the end of the year.
“Private consumption will still find support in the solidity of employment and the rise in wages. However, we anticipate further restraint in more discretionary spending if the job creation shows less strength, and inflation and interest rates – although they would decrease somewhat more – remain high,” he added.
Saldaña explained that gross fixed investment would continue to slow as the previous year’s expansion in public works continues to be reversed. emblem of the outgoing administration.
Furthermore, private investment would be slowed by the slowdown, high financial costs, and the growing uncertainty associated with constitutional reforms and the next presidential election in the US.
In the medium and long term, adjustments in the institutional framework that erode legal certainty in the country would limit the attraction of new investments associated with the industrial reorganization.
The Mexican economy presented a modest growth rate, “We will consider updating our perspective of the GDP”.
Related
2024-09-28 06:47:32