2024-10-02 01:21:24
The economic climate showed an improvement in September, with the relative index standing at 110.2 points from around 106 points in July and August, according to the IOBE economic situation survey.
As IOBE emphasizes, the strengthening of the economic climate comes exclusively from industry, with the remaining three sectors and the consumer confidence index weakening and households appearing pessimistic about their finances.
Industry is the sector that, due to its greater extroversion, even in medium-sized enterprises, is more connected to the international environment and markets, while it relies to a significant extent on medium-term contracts and orders that are not so affected by current uncertainties. In the global economy, even if there has been a significant slowdown in growth, it appears that the cycle of rising interest rates has been completed without driving economies into recession, and is now beginning to reverse.
On the other hand, the other sectors of business activity seem to be correcting the relatively optimistic outlook recorded in previous months and the corresponding upward trend.
Satisfactory results in tourism – Persistent inflation
According to the Institute, the summer period ends with satisfactory results in tourism and positive multiplier effects in various sectors of the economy. But, at the same time, inflation persists and continues to negatively affect consumer confidence, now representing a problem that has structural as well as seasonal characteristics.
Perceptible strengthening of expectations due to improvement in order forecasts
In particular, in Industry, the negative balance of estimates for orders and demand narrowed significantly, estimates for inventories weakened slightly, while positive forecasts for production in the coming months strengthened.
Mild weakening of expectations in Construction
In construction, the negative forecasts for business work programs strengthened significantly, while at the same time the positive forecasts for employment weakened.
Worsening expectations in Retail
In retail trade, estimates for current sales are strengthening strongly, with inventory levels climbing and forecasts for short-term sales developments remaining largely unchanged.
Services: Bending expectations, pessimism about future demand
In services, positive estimates for the current state of business are marginally limited, while estimates for current demand are weakening, with forecasts for short-term demand developments falling sharply.
Significant weakening of consumer confidence
In terms of consumer confidence, households’ negative forecasts for the country’s economic situation intensified, while the corresponding ones for their own economic situation strengthened.
In particular, the consumer confidence index weakened sharply in September and stood at -51.3 points, against -43.9 points in July. And this month Greek consumers appear to be the most pessimistic in the EU, by a margin from the next, with consumers in Estonia with an index level of -33.2 and Slovenia (-27.3) following.
At the same time, forecasts for major markets fell significantly, while the intention to save increased.