North Korea: “It will increase concerns about the security of the U.S. mainland”
Suggesting the possibility of ICBM provocations before and after the US presidential election
Setting the stage for negotiations with the next government on ‘recognition of possession of nuclear weapons’
Warning: “If North Korea attempts to use nuclear weapons, it will be the end”
North Korea threatened on the 1st that “new methods that will add serious concerns to the security of the U.S. mainland will inevitably emerge.” It is a reference to the possibility of a new provocation targeting the United States 35 days before the U.S. presidential election, and there are speculations that it hints at a test launch of the Hwaseong-18, a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) targeting the U.S. mainland. The Hwasong-18 is capable of reaching the entire U.S. mainland within tens of minutes of the launch order, so it is called ‘the king of North Korean ICBMs.’ A government source said, “North Korea may try to launch the Hwasong-18 at a normal angle and land it over the Japanese archipelago and into the high seas of the Pacific Ocean.” North Korea, which has only fired ICBMs at high angles, is likely to maximize the threat effect by firing them at normal angles this time.
North Korea announced this through a statement by Minister of Defense Kim Kang-il, targeting the deployment of the U.S. Air Force’s B-1B strategic bomber, B-1B, to the Korean Peninsula on Armed Forces Day, saying, “We will take thoroughly corresponding action.” North Korea’s ambassador to the United Nations, Kim Song, said at the United Nations General Assembly held in New York on the 30th of last month (local time), “We will not bargain with anyone over the status of a nuclear state.”
Our government believes that there is a high possibility that North Korea will amend the Constitution, such as specifying South Korea as the ‘number one hostile country’ at the Supreme People’s Assembly to be held on the 7th, to provide a justification for provocation, and then proceed with ‘serious provocation’. A government source said, “There is a good possibility that they will aim for an ‘October surprise’ by launching ICBMs etc. right before the US presidential election.”
At the 76th Armed Forces Day event held at Seoul Airport in Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do on the 1st, President Yoon Seok-yeol said, “If North Korea attempts to use nuclear weapons, it will face a resolute and overwhelming response from our military and the ROK-US alliance,” adding, “That is the day North Korea “This is the end of the regime,” he warned.
At the event on this day, the military unveiled the ‘Hyunmoo-5’ ballistic missile, also known as the ‘monster missile’, for the first time. Hyunmoo-5, with a warhead weighing 8 tons, is the heaviest missile in the world. When North Korea attacks South Korea with nuclear weapons or shows signs of attacking, our military uses about 20 of these missiles to carry out ‘massive punitive retaliation (KMPR)’ by cutting out major facilities in Pyongyang, including the office of North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un and the bunker of the North Korean military command center. It is known that a plan was made. On this day, a large number of cutting-edge weapons were unveiled, including the Korean supersonic fighter KF-21 and the L-SAM (long-range surface-to-air missile), an interceptor weapon called the ‘Korean version of THAAD’.
“North Korea will maximize the threat of striking the U.S. mainland by launching the Hwasong-18 at a normal angle.”
[北, 대선앞 美본토 타격 위협]
North Korea tests ICBM only at high angles… Russia, possibility of transfer of atmospheric re-entry technology
“No matter what administration we are in, we have to deal with something different”… The level of provocations is expected to increase to target the US presidential election.
North Korea establishes new ‘maritime border’ on the 7th… There are concerns that it may lead to armed conflict in the West Sea.
With 35 days left before the US presidential election on November 5, North Korea is suggesting a ‘new way’ of provocation to threaten the US mainland, leading to speculation that the level of North Korea’s provocations will reach its peak in October. South Korean and U.S. authorities have recently focused on provocations targeting South Korea, including short-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying tactical nuclear warheads, but are now concerned about the possibility that North Korea, mindful of the U.S. presidential election, may also launch serious provocations that could attract U.S. attention, such as launching intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). is paying attention to. There is also the possibility of launching an ICBM capable of striking the U.S. mainland at a ‘normal angle (30 to 45 degrees). In this way, North Korea sequentially showed off its means of striking against South Korea and the U.S., raising the level of threat and conducting its seventh nuclear test after the U.S. presidential election. There is a possibility that they will go as far as to demand that the new U.S. administration recognize the country as a nuclear weapons state and begin nuclear negotiations. The National Intelligence Service also reported at a plenary meeting of the National Assembly Intelligence Committee last month regarding North Korea’s nuclear test, “There are various means of military provocation, such as ICBMs and satellite launches, so it may occur after rather than before the U.S. presidential election.”
● Normal angle ICBM could be dropped near Hawaii
North Korea has only conducted test launches of ICBMs with a range of over 5,000 km at altitudes close to vertical. In April and July of last year, the latest ICBM, the Hwasong-18, was launched at a normal angle, but when the second and third stage launch vehicles were separated, they were flown in a high-angle orbit and the range was adjusted to 1,000 km. As a result, suspicions arose that North Korea does not possess atmospheric re-entry technology, a key ICBM technology.
Accordingly, there are speculations that North Korea will launch all first to third stage propellants of the Hwasong-18 at a normal angle ahead of the US presidential election, then fly it more than 5,000 km and drop the warhead over the Japanese archipelago in the open seas of the Pacific Ocean. It will be an attempt to prove the warhead’s ability to stably enter the atmosphere without modifying its trajectory while enduring higher heat and friction than when launched at a high angle. Some have raised the possibility that North Korea may have received some transfer of re-entry technology, which is considered the ‘final gateway’ to completing ICBMs, from Russia, with which relations have been upgraded to the level of a military alliance. A government source said, “Even if it is not launched at the maximum range (over 10,000 km), concerns will be raised in the United States that the atmospheric re-entry technology has been proven even if the launch is successful at a normal angle over 5,000 km.”
An ICBM could fall into the sea only 1,000 to 2,000 km away from Hawaii, so a normal angle launch itself could pose a huge threat to South Korea and the United States. In addition, the Hwaseong-18 is a solid fuel ICBM capable of surprise attacks due to its short fuel injection time.
Some predict that North Korea will first fly the liquid fuel-based Hwasong-17 at a normal angle, as it has more confidence. Yang Wook, a researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, also said, “The direction of launching the ICBM can be decided toward the Philippines, which has been launching reconnaissance satellites.” Last month, North Korea released a photo of Chairman Kim Jong-un inspecting a 12-axis TEL, which is longer than the existing ICBM mobile launcher (TEL). Therefore, there is a possibility that North Korea will introduce a new ICBM with an increased missile length or warhead weight.
● North Korea: “Any U.S. administration must deal with a changed us.”
North Korea’s ambassador to the United Nations, Kim Sung, asserted at the United Nations General Assembly held in New York on the 30th of last month (local time), “We (North Korea) will not go back to the distant past when it comes to our right to self-defense, which is the legitimate right of a sovereign nation.” did it He continued, “Any regime in the United States will have to deal with a changed Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.” Unlike in the past, since the country already possesses a large number of nuclear weapons, it claims that this is its right to self-defense and that the United States should also accept this fact. Recently, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Secretary-General Rafael Grossi said, “North Korea must acknowledge that it possesses nuclear weapons.” As voices emerged in the international community calling for North Korea to acknowledge its de facto possession of nuclear weapons, the incoming U.S. administration and This suggests an intention to negotiate nuclear disarmament based on the country’s status as a nuclear state.
At the Supreme People’s Assembly (the equivalent of our National Assembly) scheduled for the 7th, North Korea is expected to revise its constitution to specify South Korea as the ‘number one hostile country’ and establish a new ‘maritime border’. There are speculations that they will not recognize the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea and will draw a new line near the ‘guard line’ claimed in 2007 or further south near Yeonpyeong Island and Baengnyeong Island and then intentionally send ships down there to cause conflict.
Reporter Shin Jin-woo [email protected]
Reporter Son Hyo-joo [email protected]
Reporter Shin Gyu-jin [email protected]
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2024-10-02 04:11:37