2024-10-02 22:32:32
An extension of the war in the Middle East will probably change oil prices forever, but for the time being the trend is that prices are struggling to rise. By 2024, the average price of a barrel may not exceed $81.
The underlying culture was somewhat affected by the intervening months of war Israel and Hamas. After peaking above $90 per barrel last April, oil prices reversed course and fell below $70 at the start of the school year, the lowest level since December 2021. Key reasons Two explanations for this drop: excessive supply and demand below forecasts.
This right has had around forty analysts in it fuel conducted a study by the Reuters company to revise down, at the end of September, for the fifth consecutive month, their estimate of the average price of a barrel, for 2024. Their forecast – 81.52 dollars per barrel – reflects the total total uncertainty. which surrounds the supply of oil in the world, and therefore the supply of member countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which have cut part of their production for two years, to avoid flooding the market and maintain the valuation.
Uncertainty over OPEC supply
Will OPEC members and their allies put more barrels back into the market from December 1, as they announced, or will they reassess their timing once again? Uncertainty is all the greater as their situation may develop with the war in the Middle East.
With Iranian missile strikes against IsraelOil prices have jumped: Iran is a member of OPEC, and direct involvement in the conflict is causing fears of supply disruptions. At this stage, it is difficult to say whether this promotion will be sustainable and whether it will lead to the barrel of 100 dollars, as desired.Saudi Arabia.
Barrel has 100 dollars
The Saudi government will also be willing to put up with this high price for a while, although it is important to balance its budget. According to the indiscretions received by the Money Timesthe country would have received the idea of going through a period marked by low oil, after having, in vain, reduced its production by 2 million barrels per day to try to raise prices.
In addition to failing to increase its revenues through a strong economy, Saudi Arabia would like to avoid losing market share. Because while OPEC reduced its production, UNITED STATES OF AMERICA as well as other countries that are not members of the oil cartel provide the world supply.
Read againOPEC+ countries failed to raise oil prices
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