Tomato paste: historic export boom, rising stocks and falling prices

2024-10-02 04:33:25

Global exports of tomato paste have never been better. And as often happens when we talk about records in the raw materials sector, China also has its share of responsibility: its production of industrial tomatoes continues to increase.

Over 3.9 million tonnes of tomato paste sold in one year: from June 2023 to May 2024, i.e. 6% more than last year and an absolute record. This boom in global concentrate trade is closely linked to the performance of one of the industry’s drivers, Chinese.

For three years, the production of tomatoes for industry has continued to increase in the country, driven by attractive prices. This year, it could rise by another third, reaching 10.45 million tons, according to Tomato Newsthe information site of the International Mediterranean Association of Processed Tomatoes (AMITOM) and the World Industrial Tomato Council (CMITI).

Prices have been falling for several months

The problem is that only a small part of this production is consumed locally. The rest increases the overall supply. As a result, since last winter, the prices of Chinese concentrate, but also of that produced in China, have increased UNITED STATES ea Chilithey are falling.

In Europe, the other large production basin, prices have held out a little longer due to controlled production, both voluntarily and due to climate risks, but in countries where they have not yet fallen, they should follow the same trend .

Stocks that do nothing but grow

This year’s record supply will add to inventories that had already begun to replenish last year. “ With 2024 production we will go beyond what would have been reasonable to have », explains an expert in the sector.

Processors could therefore find themselves at the end of the next campaign with 18 months, or even two years of supplies. It would therefore be a real logistical and perhaps even more financial headache: as long as it remains immobilized, the concentrate returns nothing to the producer and loses value.

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