“We are providing ‘advice’ to Israel, not ‘permission’”
WTI rises 5.15%, highest in a month
“When Hormuz is blocked, it could cost $200.”
This attempted to assassinate the new leader of Hezbollah… Khamenei: ‘We will attack again if necessary’
“We are discussing attacks on Israeli and Iranian oil facilities.”
U.S. President Joe Biden announced on the 3rd (local time) that Israel is discussing with Israel a plan to strike oil facilities in oil-producing Iran as retaliation for being attacked by an Iranian ballistic missile two days ago. With this remark, the price of U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange on the same day rose by more than 5%, hitting a one-month high, showing an unusual rise in oil prices.
According to CNBC, some oil experts believe that if the conflict between Israel and Iran prolongs, the possibility that oil prices will soar to $200 per barrel cannot be ruled out. Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England (BOE), also warned of the possibility of a 1970s-style ‘oil shock’ due to heightened tensions in the Middle East. The Korean economy, which is highly dependent on crude oil imports, is also not free from this impact.
Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, a theocratic nation, presided over the funeral in Tehran, the capital, on the 4th of Hassan Nasrallah, the former leader of the Lebanese pro-Iranian armed group Hezbollah, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike on the 27th of last month. At the event held on Friday, an Islamic holiday, Khamenei claimed that the Israeli airstrike three days ago was the “minimum punishment” for Nasrallah’s death.
In particular, he said, “If necessary, we will attack Israel again.” Khamenei’s Friday service was held four years and nine months after the funeral of former Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, who was assassinated by the United States in January 2020.
● Concerns about “oil price of 200 won-oil shock”
When asked by reporters at the White House in Washington on this day whether he supported Israel’s attack on Iran’s oil facilities, President Biden responded, “In discussion.” Also, when asked whether Israel would allow retaliatory attacks (against Iran), he said, “We are not ‘permitting’ Israel, but ‘advising’ them,” implying that it would be difficult to prevent retaliation.
After this statement became known, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil on the ICE Futures Exchange in London closed at $73.71 and $77.62, respectively, up 5.15% and 5.03% from the previous day. Both prices are one-month highs.
Iran, a major member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), produces up to 4 million barrels of crude oil per day, about 4% of global daily production. In particular, the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman is a major transportation route for crude oil around the world, and a significant amount of the crude oil imported by Korea also passes through this strait.
In this situation, if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz to ‘retaliate’ against Israel’s retaliation, global crude oil distribution could also be greatly disrupted. Bjarne Schildrop, chief product analyst at the Swedish bank SEB, appeared on CNBC and expressed concern that “if Israel attacks Iranian oil facilities, the price of crude oil could surge to $200 per barrel.” Governor Bailey also expressed concern about an oil shock, saying, “If the situation gets really bad, there will be limits to preventing the price of crude oil from rising.”
● Lee attempts to assassinate Hezbollah’s new leader, Safied Din
The reason for this forecast is that the fighting between Israel and Iran is intensifying. On the 3rd, Israel carried out an airstrike targeting Hashem Safied-Din, the likely new leader of Hezbollah. Safied-Din is Nasrallah’s cousin.
According to the New York Times (NYT), Israel received information that Safied Din was in an underground bunker in Dahiyeh, south of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. Afterwards, a large-scale airstrike was carried out that shook buildings about 24km away. Safied Din’s fate has not been confirmed.
On the same day, Israel also assassinated Zahi Yasser Abd Alazek Upfi, commander of the Palestinian armed group Hamas, in an airstrike in the West Bank, an autonomous Palestinian region. He is considered to be the mastermind behind the terrorist attack two days ago in Tel Aviv, Israel’s largest city, in which two Palestinian men brandished guns and weapons, killing seven citizens. Hezbollah also responded on the 3rd, saying, “17 Israeli soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon.”
Paris = Correspondent Jo Eun-ah [email protected]
Reporter Lee Ji-yoon [email protected]
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2024-10-04 22:17:03